Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Associated Press/Canva/Zohran Mamdani's Chances of Beating Andrew Cuomo
By Andrew Stanton
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New York City Mayor Eric Adams, an independent, announced he will not be ending his reelection campaign to take a job in the Trump administration on Friday.
New York political experts told Newsweek an Adams exit would have been former Governor Andrew Cuomo's likeliest path to victory in the general election.
Why It Matters
Adams was elected in 2021 as a Democrat but decided to run as an independent amid low primary support following charges in a corruption case that has now been dropped.
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Mamdani's victory over Cuomo sent shockwaves through the New York political establishment, and Cuomo opted to challenge him as an independent in the general election. The latest polls show Mamdani leading—but not with a majority—fueling calls for candidates who are trailing, such as Adams, to exit the race so anti-Mamdani voters would coalesce around a singular candidate.
The New York Times reported that the Trump administration had considered offering jobs to Adams or Sliwa to narrow it down to a two-person race and give Cuomo a better chance at winning the general election and win support from Republicans and moderate Democrats backing Adams.
Is Eric Adams Dropping Out?
Adams confirmed his decision to stay in the race during a press conference at New York City's Gracie Mansion on Friday afternoon.
"Andrew Cuomo is a snake and a liar. I am in the race, and I am the only one that can beat Mamdani," he said.
He said there are "two spoiled brats running for mayor" who were "born with silver spoons in their mouths, not like working class New Yorkers."
"They are not like us. They have never had to fight. They've never had to struggle. They've never had to go through difficult times, like you and I have had to go through, New Yorkers," he said.
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Reports that he would be in Washington "are wrong," he said.
What Do The Latest Polls Show?
The latest polls of a four-way race show Mamdani with a lead over other candidates.
A Tulchin Research poll released in August showed Mamdani up with 42 percent support over Cuomo, Adams and Republican Curtis Sliwa, reported The New York Post.
The poll found that Cuomo would have an advantage over Mamdani in a two-way race, winning by 11 points (52 percent to 41 percent), according to the Post. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from August 7 to August 14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
A Gotham Polling and Analytics/AARP poll found that 42 percent of New Yorkers are planning to vote for Mamdani, while 23 percent say they will cast their ballot for Cuomo. Sliwa follows at 17 percent, while Adams has 9 percent support.
In a scenario where Adams were to have dropped out, Mamdani would have held 43 percent support compared to Cuomo's 29 percent and Sliwa's 19 percent.
It surveyed 1,376 registered voters on August 11, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
A poll from American Pulse Research & Polling found Mamdani with 37 percent of the vote, Cuomo with 25 percent, Sliwa with 17 percent and Adams with 11 percent. It surveyed 638 likely voters from August 14 to August 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Adams' Exit Was Cuomo's Clearest Path to Victory: Analysts
Boris Heersink, professor of political science at Fordham University, told Newsweek a two-way race is "probably the only way Cuomo can win at this point."
"Polls pretty systematically show that Mamdani is currently getting in the low-40s support with Cuomo in the mid-20s. What that means is that there is space for voters who are currently favoring all the candidates who aren't Mamdani to outnumber those who do, as long as they agree on one candidate," he said.
An Adams exit may not have made much of a difference anyways, he said, as his support has been "very low" and there were not that many voters for other candidates to pick up. There was also no guarantee they would all vote for Cuomo, he added.
"Mamdani is generally quite well-liked and his campaign has been mostly focused on an optimistic vision of New York and the kind of bread-and-butter issues that voters who currently are supporting Adams or even Sliwa might also find appealing. So on that basis, I think if the field clears up it improves Cuomo's chances but Mamdani would still be the favorite to win the race," he said.
Joseph Viteritti, the Thomas Hunter Professor of Public Policy at Hunter College, told Newsweek any candidates dropping out would have made the race more competitive, but that Mamdani would still have been a "strong candidate" who garners significant press.
There would have been some risk for Cuomo had Adams dropped out, Viteritti said, noting that Cuomo would not have wanted to be seen as Trump's proxy pic since the president remains unpopular in the deeply Democratic city.
Laura Tamman, clinical assistant professor of political science at Pace University, told Newsweekit is "difficult to envision any scenario in which Cuomo wins more votes than Mamdani," regardless of whether Adams or Sliwa were to drop out.
Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweekthat it is unlikely Sliwa will drop out of the race, noting he has "said so publicly in a forceful way."
Cuomo's likeliest path to victory would be both Adams and Sliwa dropping out and endorsing Cuomo, he said. He noted it could be risky for Trump if New York City Democratic voters want to "give Trump a visible setback" and coalesce around Mamdani.
Who Is Curtis Sliwa?
Sliwa is the Republican candidate for mayor and a community activist. He previously ran in 2021 but lost to Adams.
He was the founder of the Guardian Angels, an organization he created to deal with crime in New York. The group patrolled streets and subways to ensure safety. Sliwa said in 2024, the group would focus on wellness checks for homeless individuals.
His campaign largely centers around public safety and affordability issues.
What People Are Saying
Heersink also told Newsweek: "A final thing to consider is whether Trump clearly intervening in the race would also result in Democrats who have been slow to back Mamdani coming off the fence. There's a lot of pressure on Hochul, Schumer, Gillibrand, Jeffries and other (Congressional) Democrats to endorse Mamdani. If Trump effectively or actually endorses Cuomo, it might increase the likelihood of them wanting to get involved."
NYC Mayoral Candidate Curtis Sliwa said in statement, per WNBC: "The White House has not contacted me, and I'm not interested in a job with the White House. My focus is right here in New York. I'm the only candidate on a major party line who can defeat Mamdani, and I'm committed to carrying this fight through to Election Day. The people of New York City deserve a mayor who truly cares."
Mamdani said during an event this week: "This is, however, about an affront to our democracy. An affront to what makes so many of us proud to be Americans, that we choose our own leaders, not that they get to be picked by the president of the United States."
What Happens Next
The New York City mayoral election will be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2025.
Update 9/5/2025 5:50 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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