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By Jackson Roberts
Contributing Sports Writer
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Luis Gil's journey with the New York Yankees has been anything but predictable to this point.
Gil won the 2024 American League Rookie of the Year Award over three years after the date of his major league debut, thanks to Tommy John surgery costing him the better part of two seasons. He then regressed a bit last year, coming back from a lat strain for the second half of the season but struggling to find consistent velocity and command.
Sunday, though it was only a spring training game, may have marked the low point for Gil since he put his name on the Rookie of the Year trophy. After Gil allowed three home runs, nine hits, and seven earned runs during a three-inning start against the Detroit Tigers, Yankees fan circles were buzzing about whether he still had a firm grip on a spot in the starting rotation.
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On Monday, Yankees insider Brendan Kuty of The Athletic confirmed the notion that Gil's rotation spot was in jeopardy early this season, predicting that he would make the opening day roster, but quickly become the first man on the chopping block when the likes of Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole work their way back from the injured list.
"Manager Aaron Boone confirmed Gil will be in the Yankees’ rotation to start the season, but when he pitches and how long he remains in it are anyone’s guess," wrote Kuty.
"Gil got just two swings-and-misses (on Sunday) on 19 fastballs. This spring, his fastball has a whiff rate of 18.8 percent, which is the same as it was last season, as he struggled. ... The Yankees could send Gil to the minors to start the year. They have four off days before their 10th game of the season. They won’t need a fifth starter until early April."
Gil's average fastball velocity dropped from the 88th percentile of all pitchers in 2024 to the 66th percentile last year, per Baseball Savant. It's not as though velocity is the only reason he can have success, but as Kirschner intimated, his ability to generate swings and misses off his heater allows him to utilize his whole arsenal more effectively.
If he doesn't start throwing in the upper 90s again soon, Gil's command and secondary pitches will have to show up in a big way early in the season to preserve his rotation spot long-term.
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