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By Andrew Stanton
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Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits expired at midnight, affecting health care for million of Americans, but Congress could still extend the subsidies in 2026.
Why It Matters
The ACA tax credits, expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic to help more Americans access insurance, have become a major political issue. A vote on their extension was a key demand by Democrats during the government shutdown last year. But efforts to extend the credits expired at the end of the year, though some Republicans voted in support of their extension.
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About 22 million people could see increased premiums, while others may lose their coverage entirely, according to a KFF report.
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What To Know
As Congress reconvenes in the coming days, the ACA subsidies remain a key question legislators will be facing. The House is set to vote on a bill that would extend the subsidies for three years after a handful of centrist Republicans joined Democrats to force a vote. But it may face tougher odds in the Senate, which has already rejected a bill on the credits.
Betting markets give Congress a low chance of extending the tax credits. Kalshi gives Congress only a 44 percent of extension by the end of 2026, a 35 percent chance by April, a 30 percent chance by March and a 21 percent chance by February. Polymarket on Thursday gave Congress a 22 percent chance of extending the tax credits by January 31.
Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF, wrote on December 17 that there is “no absolute drop-dead date” for an extension.
“The ACA premium subsidies are refundable tax credits, which are calculated on an annual basis," he wrote. "So, an extension could happen even after the deadline to sign up for coverage and be made retroactive to January 1.”
A KFF poll released in December found that 84 percent of enrollees support the extension. Of that 84 percent, 35 percent would blame Republicans in Congress, and 41 percent would blame Trump for the expiration. The poll surveyed 1,350 adults who have a health insurance plan covered by the ACA Marketplace from November 7-15. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
House Speaker Mike Johnson, during a December press conference: “There’s about a dozen members in the conference in these swing districts that are fighting hard to make sure that they reduce costs for all of their constituents. Many of them did want a vote on this Obamacare COVID-era subsidy that the Democrats created. We looked for a way to try to allow for that pressure release valve, and it just was not to be.”
Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat, on X on Wednesday: “I have warned for over a year about the rising premiums families would face if the ACA tax credits expire. Open enrollment is over halfway through, and we are seeing the consequences in real time. Congress can still act to protect families from skyrocketing health care premiums.”
House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, a Massachusetts Democrat, on X on Wednesday: “The ACA tax credits expire at midnight. Millions will see their premiums skyrocket because Republicans refused to act. You deserve better, and Democrats will keep fighting to lower costs.”
What Happens Next
The extension of the ACA tax credits will remain a political issue in the new year. It is likely to loom over the 2026 midterms, as Democrats have already begun messaging on the matter to try to win key races.
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