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By Matthew Tostevin
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Disinformation always has its place on the continuum of war and diplomacy so it’s hard to tell how seriously to take the latest U.S. threats to Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain.
Whether or not they are more aimed at pushing the reluctant Islamic Republic to a deal, they nonetheless highlight the importance of the facility, which conservative commentator Tucker Carlson has suggested could be a target for a nuclear attack. It also underlines why it is so difficult for President Donald Trump to bring the war to any sort of end in which it can genuinely be said that Iran no longer poses a nuclear weapons threat.
Trump said U.S. forces might have to “go after” the site near the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility and that it would be no “big deal”.
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The latter part is not true of course. It would be a very big deal—much bigger than the ‘defensive strikes’ U.S. forces just carried out against Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, themselves another sign that the war has only quietened down temporarily.
Israeli intelligence assessments are that Iran moved the centrifuges for enriching uranium to make nuclear weapons into Pickaxe Mountain after earlier strikes set back Iran’s nuclear program. It may have moved enriched uranium in there too. Israel has pressed Trump to deal with Pickaxe Mountain. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s tenuous position after last week’s election may be another reason he’d want action sooner rather than later.
Pickaxe Mountain — Mount Kolang — is even harder to attack than those other Iranian nuclear sites.Israel doesn’t have the bombs to do it. It’s not even clear that the 30,000 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs used by America to destroy Iran’s nuclear Fordow facility could do the job.
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The facilities at Pickaxe Mountain are far deeper underground. Halls and tunnels are estimated to be at least 300 feet below the solid granite mountain.
Carlson, a conspiracy theorist with a huge following, Israel critic and former Trump ally, may be wrong to have said a nuclear strike is being considered (without presenting evidence). He may not be wrong to say it is the only kind of weapon that could really destroy Pickaxe Mountain.
The White House told Newsweek Carlson "has no insight into military planning or the Commander-in-Chief's thinking."
Entrance routes are vulnerable to collapse, but the Iranians know this. They are not only hardened, but are also designed in such a way that damage does not hurt the installations inside the mountain and that they can be dug out. After earlier strikes, Iranian bulldozers quickly got to work.
And that is why declaring a definitive end to the Iranian nuclear program would be so hard. There can always be more facilities and they can always be deeper underground.
A deal would not stop Iran’s nuclear program either. While the Islamic Republic seeks to destroy nuclear-armed Israel and to become the dominant force in the region, it makes sense for it to pursue nuclear weapons (and to lie about doing so).
An attack on Pickaxe Mountain would no doubt still be a blow to Iran. It might also be enough of a convenient symbol to allow the assault to be declared over and for U.S. forces to pull back from an unpopular war.
While today’s midterm elections look set to be bad for Trump, at some point he will need to look towards getting the result he wants in the 2028 presidential election too.
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