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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Three days before the midterm elections, Democrats are strongly favored to win the House of Representatives but hold a narrower advantage in the Senate; there, several potentially decisive races remain within a normal polling error.
The result will determine which party controls the congressional agenda, leads committees and oversees President Donald Trump during the final two years of his term.
Why It Matters
Midterm elections have historically created difficulties for the president’s party, allowing voters to check the White House without removing its occupant. This year, that effect could extend beyond the House and threaten Republicans’ 53-47 Senate majority.
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Democrats need a net gain of four seats for outright control because Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie in favor of Republicans. With several decisive races close simultaneously, a modest national polling error in either direction could alter the outcome across multiple states.
What To Know
The following details were checked by Newsweek at 7 a.m. ET on Friday, October 30.
Silver Bulletin, which updated its forecast on October 29, gave Democrats a 95.1 percent chance of winning the House, with an average projection of 240 Democratic seats to 195 Republican seats. It put their probability of controlling the Senate at 77.7 percent, with an average division of 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican seats.
In his October 29 update, Nate Silver said Democrats remained strong favorites to retake the House. However, he added that their polling leads in Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine were each within the range of a normal polling error.
Decision Desk HQ, last updated at 7:25 a.m. on October 29, gave Democrats an 80 percent chance of winning the House and a 60 percent chance of controlling the Senate. It projected 238 House seats and 52 Senate seats.
VoteHub gave Democrats an 89 percent chance of controlling the House and a 63 percent chance of controlling the Senate, including a 60 percent probability of winning both chambers.
Forecasts are not directly interchangeable because they make different assumptions about polling, political fundamentals and uncertainty.
They also differ from polling averages, which measure current voter preference rather than the probability of an eventual result.
Eight Senate races were within four points in at least one polling average examined by Newsweek; this places them among the contests most likely to determine control of the chamber.
...
Alaska
Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman and the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, is challenging Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.
The ballot also includes Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. Under Alaska’s ranked-choice system, lower-placed candidates are eliminated and their votes transferred until one candidate wins a majority.
Trump and Vance have argued that the similar names could confuse voters, which Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. denies.
As of 7 a.m. ET on October 30, the RealClearPolling average gave Peltola a 1.2-point advantage, 49.4 percent to 48.2 percent, based on surveys conducted from October 1 through October 16. Decision Desk HQ gave Peltola a 60 percent chance of winning and rated the race a tossup.
Bill Roth, Mariam Zuhaib/Anchorage Daily News via AP/AP, file
Iowa
Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, a former TV journalist, and Democrat Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic wheelchair-basketball gold medalist, are separated by one of the narrowest averages in the country.
At the time of writing, the RealClearPolling average gave Hinson a 0.5-point lead, 46 percent to 45.5 percent, based on surveys conducted between September 29 and October 28.
Decision Desk HQ gave Republicans a 53 percent probability, effectively treating Iowa as a coin flip.
...
Kansas
Democrat Adam Hamilton, the founder of a Methodist megachurch, is attempting to defeat Republican Senator Roger Marshall in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator for nearly a century.
The RealClearPolling average gave Adam Hamilton a 0.2-point advantage, 46.1 percent to 45.9 percent—the slimmest margin of all the races in this Newsweek analysis.
Decision Desk HQ gave Republicans a 58 percent probability and placed Kansas in its tossup category.
...
Ohio
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a return to the chamber against Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat previously held by Vice President Vance.
The RealClearPolling average gave Sherrod Brown a 2.6-point lead, 47.9 percent to 45.3 percent, based on polls conducted between October 5 and October 26.
Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 54 percent probability of winning Ohio, making it one of the closest Senate races in its model.
...
Maine
Democrat Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former state Senate president, is challenging Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term.
The RealClearPolling average gave Jackson a 1.4-point lead, 48.7 percent to 47.3 percent, based on surveys conducted from September 23 through October 26.
Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 57 percent probability and categorized Maine as a toss-up.
...
Michigan
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, faces Republican Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent and former chair of the House Intelligence Committee.
The RealClearPolling average gave Abdul El-Sayed a 3.2-point lead, 48.8 percent to 45.6 percent, based on polling conducted from September 28 through October 27.
Decision Desk HQ gave El-Sayed a 72 percent chance of winning, the strongest Democratic probability among the eight races examined.
...
South Carolina
Republican Senator Darline Graham Nordone, appointed after the sudden death of her brother, Lindsey Graham, faces Democrat Annie Andrews in a race that has become more competitive than South Carolina’s recent voting history might suggest.
The RealClearPolling page gave the Republican a 2.7-point lead, 47.7 percent to 45 percent. The average covered polling conducted from September 28 through October 26.
Decision Desk HQ gave the Republican a 65 percent probability and rated the race Lean Republican.
...
Texas
Democratic State Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are contesting a seat that would ordinarily be expected to favor the GOP.
The RealClearPolling average gave James Talarico a 2.1-point lead, 48.6 percent to 46.5 percent, based on polling conducted from October 8 through October 27.
Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 60 percent probability and categorized Texas as a toss-up.
...
What Happens Next
No polling average or forecast guarantees an outcome. Turnout, the composition of the electorate and the possibility of a polling error affecting several similar states in the same direction could still change which party controls the Senate.
Election Day is November 3.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson and James Debens
Register for our November 10 discussion, 'Newsweek Webinar: How the Politics of AI Could Shape Midterms,' which will examine how AI policy played in key races, data centers, lobbying and the political lines that emerged.
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