...
By Flynn Nicholls
US News Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
As Americans head to the polls, bookmakers still favor Donald Trump to beat Kamala Harris, with the odds in the final days shifting in Trump's favor.
On Sunday, Betfair, a British betting exchange, offered 11/10 odds for Harris (47.6 percent) and 4/5 (55.6 percent) for a Trump victory. On Monday, that shifted in Trump's favor, 5/4 for Harris (44 percent) and 4/6 for Trump (60 percent)
On Tuesday, Betfair shifted again in Trump's favor, offering 8/15 (65 percent) on a Trump victory against 6/4 (40 percent) on a Harris victory.
Read More on News
In a statement to Newsweek, Betfair spokesperson Sam Robertson said the overwhelming amount of money bet has been on Trump.
"While his odds drifted slightly at the weekend, the odds have swung in his favor again and he is now the clear favorite to win," Robertson said.
"The vice president will have to overcome the odds to win the election, something that has only been done once in Betfair Exchange history, if she was to win, she would be replicating her competitor, Donald Trump, who beat the odds to win the election in 2016.
"As the polls open, a whopping £185 million ($239 million) has been wagered on the outcome of this election in total so far, but we're just getting started, as voting closes and the results start to trickle in, we're expecting even more money to come in on the market and the odds to move further, one way or the other."
...
A similar trend can be seen on Polymarket, another online betting exchange, where Trump's odds have increased 56 percent to 63 percent since Tuesday. Another betting market, Kalshi, saw Trump's odds increase from 50.6 percent to 58 percent since Sunday. Harris's odds fell from 50.1 to 42 percent.
Betting markets have gained popularity as election predictors, yet their reliability varies. Unlike polls, which survey voters directly, betting markets reflect the sentiments and behaviors of those willing to put money on an outcome. This approach can provide a real-time snapshot of public confidence but is also influenced by external factors, such as recent polls or high-profile events.
Studies show betting markets have sometimes accurately predicted winners, especially when large volumes of data are available. However, they are not foolproof and can be swayed by emotions, misinformation, or skewed by participants who are not representative of the broader electorate. Several betting platforms, including Polymarket, have been swayed by a small number of people making large bets.
Polling data indicates a much tighter race than indicated in the betting market. In an analysis released just hours before polls opened on Tuesday, polling expert Nate Silver gave Harris a 50 percent chance of winning the presidential race, versus 49.6 percent for Trump and 0.3 percent for a tie.
In the event of a tie, the contest would go to the newly elected House of Representatives, which Silver predicts would back the Republican candidate.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines