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Seventeen days into the U.S.—Israel war with Iran, the most important question in Washington and global markets is simple: When will it end?
At the start of the campaign, President Donald Trump said the war was projected to last four to five weeks. He then added both that U.S. aims were already way ahead of target but also that the conflict could "go far longer than that."
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the timeline ultimately rests with the president.
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"We’ll end this conflict on our timeline," he said, emphasizing that Trump alone will decide when U.S. objectives have been achieved.
The administration’s messaging has been contradictory. Trump has repeatedly suggested the war is already effectively won, even as the fighting continues and Iran launches new missile and drone attacks across the region.
That tension has become especially visible in the Persian Gulf.
Just days after declaring that Iran’s military had been largely destroyed, Trump began urging foreign governments to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil.
The president has appealed to allies including Britain, France, Japan and South Korea, as well as rival power China, to deploy naval forces to escort commercial shipping through the corridor.
But the response so far has been cautious. European governments say they want greater clarity about U.S. war aims before committing ships, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding Washington’s endgame.
Against that backdrop, there are three plausible scenarios for how, and when, the war could end:
1. A Short War and Rapid US Exit
The first scenario, and the one the Trump administration would clearly prefer, is a short, decisive military campaign followed by a declaration of victory.
U.S. and Israeli forces have carried out waves of strikes across Iran targeting missile bases, naval facilities and military infrastructure. Over the weekend, U.S. attacks also hit sites linked to Kharg Island, Iran’s main crude export hub and a critical source of revenue for the regime.
If those strikes significantly degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping and regional allies, Trump could argue the war’s objectives have, in a large part, been achieved. That would allow the president to begin winding down operations within weeks—potentially by early April as per his initial four to five weeks estimate.
But reopening the Strait of Hormuz could prove far more complicated than the initial bombing campaign.
Iran still possesses naval mines, drones and missile systems capable of threatening vessels in the narrow waterway. Neutralizing those threats could require sustained naval patrols and international cooperation—precisely the kind of coalition Trump has been urging allies to join in escorting ships through the strait.
Meanwhile, the conflict is already reverberating through global energy markets.
Goldman Sachs analysts say they expect 21 days of severely reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, at roughly 10 percent of normal levels, followed by about a month of gradual recovery.
Under that scenario, Brent crude would average around $98 a barrel in March and April before easing to roughly $71 by the end of the year. If disruptions last longer, Brent could average $110, and analysts warn that prices could even exceed the 2008 record of $147 per barrel if flows remain constrained.
2. A Negotiated Ceasefire
A second possibility is that the war ends through diplomacy rather than decisive military victory.
Even after absorbing heavy strikes, Iran retains leverage through its ability to disrupt global energy supplies. Around 20 percent of the world’s oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the most strategically important choke-points on Earth.
That leverage could push outside powers, including Europe and China, to encourage negotiations aimed at stabilizing shipping routes and reducing the risk of a wider war.
If diplomatic pressure builds, the conflict could end through a fragile ceasefire within several months, allowing both sides to step back while claiming partial success.
3. A Long, Regional Conflict
The third, and most worrying, scenario is a prolonged regional confrontation.
Iran has continued launching attacks on Gulf states and Israeli targets even as U.S. strikes intensify. The conflict has already spread beyond Iran’s borders, raising fears it could evolve into a broader Middle East war.
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In this scenario, fighting could continue for months or longer, particularly if Washington expands its objectives to include crippling Iran’s energy infrastructure or destabilizing the regime.
Domestic politics in the United States, with the midterms looming, could also shape that outcome.
Trump has provided little advance preparation for the war, and his shifting statements about victory have created uncertainty about the administration’s strategy. At the same time, Republicans in Congress have largely backed the president’s war powers—while quietly hoping the conflict remains short.
History looms over those calculations. Early U.S. military successes in Iraq and Afghanistan eventually turned into long conflicts that reshaped American politics.
The economic fallout could be particularly severe in the Gulf. If oil and gas flows through Hormuz were effectively halted for two months, Qatar and Kuwait could see their economies contract by about 14 percent this year, according to Goldman Sachs economist Farouk Soussa.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would likely fare somewhat better because they can reroute some exports away from the strait. Even so, their economies could still shrink by around 3 percent and 5 percent, respectively.
Those risks are already visible in markets. Dubai stocks slid into bear-market territory this week, falling more than 20 percent from February highs as the war hits tourism, real estate and energy sectors.
War’s Endgame May Hinge on Strait of Hormuz
The timeline of the war may hinge less on battlefield momentum than on whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can be stabilized.
For Washington, reopening the waterway would provide a clear marker that Iran’s ability to threaten global energy flows has been curtailed, allowing Trump to argue that the campaign achieved one of its central objectives. If oil tankers can move safely through the strait again, the White House could plausibly declare victory and begin winding down operations.
Such an outcome would also support Trump’s broader strategic goal of pivoting U.S. military focus toward Asia, though China, which relies heavily on Gulf oil shipments, has its own strong interest in keeping the strait open.
But if Iran continues to disrupt shipping with drones, missiles or naval mines, the conflict could prove far harder to end. Clearing those threats may require prolonged naval patrols, international cooperation and potentially further strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
That uncertainty explains Trump’s growing push for foreign navies to help secure the corridor.
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