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By Suzanne Blake
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President Donald Trump's new tariffs could mean increased prices for your favorite seasonal pumpkin spice treats.
A new report from Empower found that 44 percent of Americans say tariffs and inflation are making pumpkin-flavored items cost more, and 39 percent agreed the "pumpkin spice tax" is real.
Why It Matters
Restaurants and grocery stores take advantage of the season by introducing limited-time favorites featuring pumpkin spice and other fall flavors.
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However, the tariffs on imported products could cause the prices for these items to increase, affecting larger consumer behavior and profits for businesses.
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What To Know
Consumers are excited about pumpkin spice season, according to Empower research, as 54 percent of the 2,200 U.S. adults surveyed said they look forward to buying these specialties every season.
Younger generations were the most excited, with millennials spending the most at an average of $64 per month on pumpkin spice products. That's more than five times what baby boomers spend, at $12.
However, these fall treats could soon experience an uptick in price, experts said, even for products produced in the U.S.
"A common misconception about tariffs is that if something is grown or produced in the U.S., its price won't be affected. That's not the case," Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek.
"If global supply—say pumpkins from Central America—now carries a 10 percent tariff, U.S. producers will simply raise their prices to capture that extra margin. This is the ripple effect of tariffs: Even domestic goods end up adjusting to the new, higher price level."
Across the board, 39 percent of adults prefer seasonal versions of their favorite products even if it costs more, and 43 percent said pumpkin spice makes a product seem more premium or exclusive.
For pumpkin spice-flavored coffee alone, 51 percent of Gen Zers and 47 percent of millennials said they sipped on the seasonal treat.
What People Are Saying
Kevin Thompson told Newsweek: "Customers will absorb higher costs at the register, while corporations or farmers pocket the additional profit. Even if unit sales decline, the higher price per item can offset weaker demand, sometimes resulting in equal or greater revenue on a year-over-year basis. In short: consumers pay more, businesses may sell less but still may come out ahead."
Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: "The extent to which tariffs will play a part in pumpkin spice price increases really depends on the product and the company creating it. It's fair to point out, though, that a number of the ingredients used in some pumpkin-themed foods are imported, and that absolutely could contribute to price increases. At the same point, data suggest that a large number of Americans are still willing to buy these items at higher prices."
What Happens Next
While sales could potentially decline for some seasonal items as a result of the tariffs, the emotional ties to pumpkin spice could reduce any major monetary pushback, Beene said.
"With the impact of tariffs and inflationary pressures in general, the expectation is to see a sales dip in seasonal items, but so many of these themed offerings are now associated in many people's minds with the season and holidays themselves," Beene said. "That emotional connection could offset the pricing fluctuations."
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