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Alex Backus

By Alex Backus

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Texas is seeing a surge in early voting as Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton compete for a U.S. Senate seat in a state where Democrats have not won a statewide election in 32 years.

More than 4 1/2 million Texans have already cast their ballots since early voting began one week ago, according to figures from the Texas secretary of state on Monday.

D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek that the Texas Senate race being considered a toss-up will drive more voters to the polls.

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“Voters turn out in large numbers when they perceive a contest to be close,” Voss said. “Partly that's because the voters themselves get more engaged, but it's also a result of all the outside organizations that swoop into the area and work to mobilize the electorate.”

Early voting in Texas is up 74 percent compared with the same point in the 2022 midterm election cycle.

What Early Voting Shows

As Newsweek previously reported, early voting began October 19 with a record 19 million registered voters in Texas, despite technology issues that left counties processing thousands of delayed or corrected voter records just days prior.

As of October 26, Texas had recorded 4,538,667 early votes both in-person and by mail, according to unofficial figures released by the Texas secretary of state. That’s nearly 24 percent of registered voters.

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Texas Early Voting Breaks County Records in Warning Sign to Republicans

Texas Early Voting Breaks County Records in Warning Sign to Republicans

The following shows the cumulative number of in-person and mail-in voters in Texas’ highest-turnout counties as of Monday:

What the Latest Polls Show

FILE - At left, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks in McKinney, Texas, May 19, 2026, and at right, Texas state Rep. James Talarico, after voting, in Austin, Texas, Feb. 17, 2026.

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Texas has long eluded Democrats in statewide elections, and the party is seeking its first statewide election victory since 1994 as Talarico faces Paxton in a closely contested U.S. Senate race.

RealClearPolitics’ polling average, covering surveys conducted October 8-21, put Talarico ahead of Paxton by 1.5 percentage points, at 48.4 percent to 46.9 percent.

Individual polls also show a very tight contest.

A Fox News poll conducted October 15-19 found the candidates tied at 49 percent among likely voters, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points. An Emerson College/Nexstar poll conducted October 17-19 put Talarico at 49 percent and Paxton at 48 percent, with a margin of error of approximately ±3 percentage points. Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico leading 51 percent to 47 percent in a poll conducted October 15-18, with a margin of error of ±3.9 percentage points.

RealClearPolitics’ polling average does not have a single margin of error because it combines multiple polls.

“This race is TIED!” Paxton posted to X on October 21. “This race is a dead heat, and every bit of support matters.”

Voss said the close race could help Republicans mobilize their supporters, but cautioned that Democrats may have an enthusiasm advantage.

“If the Paxton camp is lucky, the competitive environment is roping in past supporters of the GOP," Voss said. “What Republicans should fear is that Texas might be exhibiting the same Democratic enthusiasm gap seen in special elections since Trump returned to office.”

An October 12 report from ad-tracking firm AdImpact found that $490.4 million had been spent on advertising in the Texas Senate race across the primary, primary runoff and general election, making it the second-most expensive nonpresidential race on record.

Billionaire Elon Musk has also contributed heavily to Republican-aligned groups supporting Paxton. He donated $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which gave the same amount to Texas PAC, a major outside group supporting Paxton. Musk also contributed $10 million to the Paxton-supporting Lone Star Liberty PAC.

“Elon Musk is trying to buy this Senate seat in Texas,” Talarico posted to X October 20. “He wants our land, he wants our water, and he wants his own personal U.S. senator. He’s trying to buy Texas.”

Newsweek has reached out to Paxton and Talarico’s campaigns for comment.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Steven Frank and Edward T. Cummins.

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