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By Joe Edwards
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Poor snowpack and dry soil are contributing to "well below normal" water supply forecasts along the Colorado River, according to recent data.
Why It Matters
The Colorado River system—which includes Lake Powel as well as Lake Mead—irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland and provides water to some 40 million people across the western U.S., according to the National Agricultural Law Center.
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What To Know
In a January 1 water supply discussion, the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC), which provides hydrologic forecast information, noted that "water supply forecasts are generally well below normal."
The agency—whose forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin, Lower Colorado River Basin, and Eastern Great Basin—said that the water supply outlook is largely shaped by snowpack levels and soil moisture conditions.
Cody Moser, a water scientist with the CBRFC said conditions are "extremely poor" right now while speaking during a Thursday morning webinar, KLAS 8 News Now reported.
CBRFC noted in the January discussion that the 2025–26 winter to date has featured record warmth and limited precipitation.
While the northern fringes of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Eastern Great Basin saw above average precipitation, a warm maritime influence meant that snow accumulation "remained unimpressive," it said.
"The water year as a whole tells a different story. In October, several rounds of heavy rain tied to decaying tropical storms brought record flooding to portions of Arizona, southern Utah, and southwest Colorado—making it one of the wettest Octobers on record. November brought continued above average precipitation to the Lower Colorado River Basin, but well below average precipitation was observed elsewhere," the CBRFC said.
The agency said that snowpack conditions in most the Upper Basin are "very poor," with numerous monitoring stations recording near or record low values.
"[Upper Colorado River Basin] January 1 snow covered area is around 28 percent of the 2001–2025 median, which is the lowest on record dating back to 2001," it noted.
According to CBRFC, fall soil moisture conditions influence water supply forecasts and spring‑runoff efficiency, with wetter soils producing more efficient runoff and drier soils reducing efficiency until deficits are met. Snowpack, spring weather, and soil moisture together affect spring‑runoff timing and volume.
CBRFC reports that soil moisture heading into the 2026 runoff season is below normal across most areas due to the warm, dry 2025 water year. Precipitation was about 80 percent of average in the Upper Colorado River Basin and Eastern Great Basin and about 60 percent in the Lower Colorado River Basin.
"We typically aren’t really looking at our model soil moisture conditions over the winter months because they’re not changing much because there’s typically snowpack, it’s frozen, it’s accumulating on top of the soil. That’s generally not been the case this winter," Moser said, per KLAS 8 News Now.
"Temperatures have been warmer than normal, storm systems have led to high-elevation snowmelt, even high-elevation rainfall runoff events in areas that are typically building a snowpack."
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As of Wednesday, official data shows that Lake Powell was just 26 percent full with around 6.4 million acre-feet of water in storage—roughly 49 percent of the average level for the date.
CBRFC estimated that Lake Powell will see just 57 percent of its normal water flow this year based on 1991-2020 levels.
What People Are Saying
Sharon Megdal, director of the University of Arizona Water Resources Research Center told Newsweek in December: "Currently, the water-in-storage situation for the Colorado River system is not good.
“[There is] less is in storage than last year, and current snow conditions are not good. Even if early 2026 snowpack is robust, the system will remain highly stressed. The region is faced with difficult choices regarding Colorado River water deliveries and dam operations, including those related hydropower generation.
"The debates regarding river management reflect these physical realities. There are many trade-offs to consider. We cannot keep drawing from savings (system storage) when the system is not making sufficient deposits of water. We must work with what nature is providing."
What Happens Next
Conditions look unlikely to improve in the immediate future, as outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on Thursday—for the January 14-18 period—show that the western U.S. is expected to see below normal precipitation, along with above normal temperatures.
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