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By Aila Slisco and Carlo Versano
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Republican Senator JD Vance won the vice presidential debate against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz by the slightest of margins, according to a CNN instant poll conducted among registered voters who watched the showdown.
Fifty-one percent of respondents said that Vance came out on top, compared to 49 percent who said the same of Walz. The margin of error was plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.
The CNN viewer results were somewhat more favorable for Walz than CNN's own panel of post-debate anchors, who slammed Walz for being either over or underprepared and gave the advantage to Vance.
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According to David Chalian, CNN's political director, the poll was conducted among registered voters who specifically watched the debate, rather than a broader sample of all registered or likely voters.
"To be clear, our sample consists of about a third Democrats, a third Republicans, and a third independents. Overall, it leans about 5 percentage points more Democratic than a nationwide poll of registered voters, so keep that in mind as we look at these debate results," Chalian explained.
"Now, regarding expectations versus reality: Before the debate, 45 percent thought Vance would win, and 54 percent thought Walz would win. In the end, it was 51 percent to 49 percent in Vance's favor, meaning Vance exceeded expectations, while Walz underperformed according to this group of debate watchers," Chalian said.
The poll also found that favorability ratings for both candidates rose significantly among debate watchers, with Vance improving his rating of -22 to -3 following the debate and Walz boosting his status from +14 to +37.
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The CNN instant poll had a similar result to a CBS News flash poll performed in conjunction with YouGov, which showed Vance winning by a slim margin. That survey of debate watchers had Vance with 42 percent to Walz's 41 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. Seventeen percent of respondents said the debate was a draw.
Notably, that CBS/YouGov snap poll asked debate watchers whether they thought the tone of the debate was negative or positive. Nearly nine in 10 said it was generally positive, a sharp reversal from previous presidential debates when former President Donald Trump was on stage.
Polls showed that most Americans thought that Vice President Kamala Harris defeated Trump in their lone debate on September 10. Tuesday's debate was likely the last for candidates from either of this year's major party presidential tickets, with Trump at the moment refusing to square off in any further debates with Harris.
Christopher Devine, associate professor of political science at the University of Dayton, previously told Newsweek that the Vance-Walz debate would likely end up as a "draw," due to most voters having a partisan view of the candidates.
"It's hard to really 'win' a debate these days because the electorate is so polarized and eager to believe that their party's candidate got the better of the other side," Devine said. "This debate will probably be something of a draw, with Republicans believing Vance won and Democrats believing Walz won."
"Folks in the middle might favor one or the other, but there aren't enough of them to give either candidate a decisive win if partisans stand by their man," he added.
Update 10/02/24, 1:10 a.m.: This article has been updated with further information and context.
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