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By Andrew Stanton
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Democrat Amy Acton’s chances of beating Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in the Ohio governor race received a boost on Friday as the Cook Political Report shifted the race to its “toss-up” category.
The Cook Political Report is a major elections forecaster, so its reclassification of the race from “lean Republican” underscores how competitive Ohio will be in the midterms. Ohio, once a battleground, shifted rightward over the past decade, but Democrats are staging a comeback in the Buckeye State as President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating gives them hope about their chances in this year’s elections.
Acton, who led the Ohio Department of Health during the COVID-19 pandemic, is running against Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who rose to national prominence during his 2024 presidential run, which he ultimately lost to Trump in the GOP primary. It’s expected to be among the closest races this year.
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Ohio Governor Race Is Now ‘Toss-Up’
Cook Political Report announced its decision to reclassify Ohio as a toss-up on Friday. The governor races in four other states—Georgia, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin—are also toss-ups. Analyst Jessica Taylor wrote in the update that the shift reflects a “favorable national climate and unique Democratic recruits.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, another key forecaster, still rates the race as Leans Republican.
Daniel Birdsong, professor of political science at the University of Dayton, told Newsweek polling supports the shift.
“Cook Political Report and ABC News have both moved it into toss-up territory. That's remarkable in a state where no Democrat has won governor in 20 years,” he said, adding that the race has become so competitive due to Ramaswamy’s favorability challenges, Acton having crossover appeal and the overall national environment.
Robert Alexander, professor of political science at Bowling Green State University, told Newsweek he expects a competitive race.
“Given the dominance Republicans have had in the state over the past 20 years, I think it would still be an upset if Acton is able to win the race,” he said. “That it is competitive at all should be a warning sign for Republicans across the country."
Ohio voters have a “deeply populist streak and have been feeling a lot of economic and societal anxiety over the past few election cycles,” Alexander said. He added that “there is little distance between Ramaswamy and Trump,” who is less popular in the state, while Acton has “leaned into the role of listener and healer,” potentially helping her among independents and disaffected Republicans.
Philip Stein, who serves as Acton’s campaign manager, told Newsweek the shift “reflects what Dr. Acton hears on the ground everyday: Ohioans are ready for change.”
“Ohioans know that Dr. Acton is the only candidate in this race who will lower costs, tackle the cost of corruption, and build an Ohio where all of us can get ahead. While Vivek Ramaswamy is far from Ohio, globetrotting aboard his private jet, Dr. Acton is fighting for a state where all of us can thrive,” Stein said.
Newsweek has reached out to Ramaswamy's campaign for comment.
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What Do Polls Show?
A poll from The New York Times and Siena College found a tied race between Ramaswamy and Acton, with each receiving 47 percent support. It surveyed 601 likely voters from June 15-28.
Meanwhile, two recent polls showed Acton with a lead over Ramaswamy.
An AARP poll gave Acton a lead with 47 percent to Ramaswamy’s 44 percent. It surveyed 800 likely voters from June 14-16 and was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research.
Meanwhile, a Fox News poll also gave Acton a narrow lead with 50 percent to Ramaswamy’s 49 percent. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research from May 28 to June 1 among 1,015 registered voters.
But an earlier poll from Bowling Green State University found Ramaswamy up with 48 percent to Acton’s 47 percent. It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from April 7 to 14.
Acton’s path to victory is centered around labor, Birdsong told Newsweek.
“The real question is whether she can actually turn out those union households, because that alignment with Democrats has been eroding in Ohio for two decades. She also needs the persuadable, [Governor Mike] DeWine-approving Republicans who are dissatisfied but haven't committed to Ramaswamy yet,” he said.
Acton will need to mobilize Democratic voters but also close margins in the more rural areas in the state, according to Alexander.
“Republicans have absolutely routed Democrats in rural areas during the age of Trump. There is some question how much Ramaswamy will be able to get Republicans to turn out to vote,” he said.
What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Even though some recent polls show Acton with a lead, prediction markets continue to favor Republicans, who had a 53 percent chance of holding the seat on Polymarket and a 54 percent chance on Kalshi as of Friday morning.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Ohio’s Rightward Shift
Trump won Ohio by about 11 percentage points in 2024, an improvement on his 2020 and 2016 performances, when he won by about 8 points in each year.
But Ohio was viewed as more competitive for Democrats not long before. Former President Barack Obama narrowly carried Ohio in 2008 and 2012. It has shifted as Trump performed well among the state’s working-class voters.
Trump made inroads with white, working-class voters who were previously more divided between Democrats and Republicans. His gains came from rural counties as well as the northeastern region near Cleveland. Democrats have gained some ground in Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs, but not enough to offset Republicans' gains in rural areas.
Still, Ohio has been competitive in some recent elections. Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection in 2018, then lost in 2024 by fewer than 4 percentage points. He is running in the Senate race against GOP Senator Jon Husted this year, another race that is expected to be competitive.
Democrats hope their candidates can improve on that in a more favorable national environment in November.
Birdsong said it is entirely possible for Democrats to make a comeback in Ohio this year.
“So, a comeback isn't structurally impossible, it just requires candidates who can meaningfully outperform the state's partisan lean, which is a high bar,” he said.
When Did Ohio Last Elect a Democratic Governor?
Ohio last elected a Democratic governor 20 years ago in 2006, when Ted Strickland, then a member of the House of Representatives, flipped the race in a major blue wave year. Four years later in 2010, a stronger year for the GOP, Republican John Kasich defeated Strickland by about 2 points.
Since then, Ohio has elected moderate Republican governors like Kasich in his reelection and Governor Mike DeWine, who is ineligible to seek a third term in office.
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Donald Trump’s Approval Rating at Record Lows Across Two Polls
How Popular Is Donald Trump in Ohio?
Democrats anticipate a favorable national environment this year. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms, viewed as a referendum on the sitting president. Trump’s approval has declined in recent months over concerns about the cost-of-living and inflation, and especially around gas prices during the Iran war.
Civiqs, which monitors Trump’s approval rating in each state as its national Trump approval tracker, found that 53 percent of Ohioans disapprove of Trump compared to 41 percent who approve of his job performance.
Ramaswamy has aligned himself closely with Trump and was set to serve in the administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) alongside Elon Musk. Trump has endorsed Ramaswamy’s gubernatorial campaign.
While Democrats believe Trump will be a major factor, Ohio Republicans view Acton’s leadership during the pandemic as a political vulnerability, as many Americans did not necessarily approve of shutdowns and stay-at-home orders, even as many public health experts viewed them as necessary to contain the virus.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Jason Lemon and Anthony Murray.
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