By Benjamin Lynch
US Politics and National Affairs Reporter
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Americans could be set for a very different start to 2024 compared to this year as the El Niño pattern impacts forecasts for the coming year.
Early indications are that the system will lead to a potentially cooler than normal start to the winter months in the Southeast of the country and milder than usual temperatures further north.
El Niño periods occur when warmer waters are shifted east due to weaker trade winds, which blow east to west near the equator in the Pacific. Theseare weaker or reversed during an El Niño season, so warmer water spreads further east, leading to potentially volatile conditions.
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A prediction from the National Weather Service said the seasonal temperature outlook shows significant changes across the north of the country in particular.
Alaska and parts of northern California, Oregon and Washington are listed as having a 50 to 60 percent chance of above-normal temperatures. This is slightly lower across other northern states, including much of Wisconsin, Michigan and New England.
Much of the Midwest is expected to remain the same as last year. Northern Texas and Oklahoma are predicted to have "near-normal" temperatures. The Southeast, including Florida, is the same.
"An El Niño event favors wetter winters across the south and the southwestern United States and drier and warmer winters in the Pacific Northwest," Aaron Levine, a research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies at the University of Washington, previously told Newsweek.
More turbulent wet weather in the Sunshine State is possible, however, with a separate forecast predicting most of Florida as having an 80 to 90 percent chance of above-average rainfall.
That prediction may not be welcomed by residents in cities like Fort Lauderdale, Florida, as NBC Boston named it the wettest city in America this year.
Areas in eastern Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas could also be affected, with increased precipitation forecast.
Rainfall in the north of the U.S. is generally expected to be lower than normal, such as areas of Idaho, Washington and Montana. Around 40 to 50 percent below-normal rainfall is expected in areas of Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Illinois.
Further south, Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado and parts of New Mexico may all be looking at above-normal precipitation.
In a November press release, the World Meteorological Organization said El Niño is expected to last until at least April 2024.
"There is a 90 percent likelihood it will persist throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere winter/southern hemisphere summer," the weather agency said.
The release continued: "The ongoing El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures, both on land and in the ocean."
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