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By Hugh Cameron
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U.S. gas prices are set to continue on their upward trajectory, experts are warning, following failed negotiations between American and Iranian officials and President Donald Trump's announcement that the United States will launch its own blockade of the vital Hormuz Strait.
"The verdict is in—gas prices are likely to return to climbing with Trump's new Strait block," GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan wrote on social media on Sunday, adding that certain regions could see prices rise "very soon—as early as tomorrow" on the back of a renewed surge in global oil.
Why It Matters
Since the beginning of the conflict, Iran's military has restricted shipments through the Hormuz Strait—through which about 20 percent of global oil flows—for countries supporting the U.S., while also imposing tolls on vessels that are seeking safe passage. Global oil prices have moved sharply higher as a result, with Brent crude—the international benchmark—rising above $100 per barrel for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis. Domestic gas prices have also reached multiyear highs, with March's 21 percent jump representing the steepest increase since 1967, according to Department of Labor figures.
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Experts have increasingly warned that rising gas prices—a particularly sensitive topic to the U.S. electorate—could hold consequences for Republicans in this year's midterm elections, especially given Trump's recent warning that these effects could be felt through November.
What To Know
Despite the ceasefire announced last week, transits through Hormuz have not materially increased. However, Iran continues to export. The maritime intelligence firm Windward estimated that the Islamic Republic has shipped about 59 million barrels from Kharg Island, the country's main oil terminal, since March 1—90 percent of which have been bound for China.
On Sunday, following the talks in Islamabad, Trump said the U.S. Navy would "begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz."
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) later released details of how his blockade would function, saying it would begin on Monday morning and affect "vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman."
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"CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports," the post continued.
Oil spiked on renewed supply fears following Trump's announcement and the failed peace negotiations, surging above the $100 mark again on Monday. Jorge Montepeque of Onyx Capital Group told Bloomberg Television on Sunday that prices could rise to $150 a barrel if the U.S. follows through with the blockade.
Domestic gas prices have yet to follow suit. AAA data shows the nationwide average for regular unleaded at $4.13 on Monday morning, compared to $4.12 a week prior but up from $3.63 a month ago.
Experts believe oil prices will quickly feed into domestic pump costs, with independent oil analyst Tom Kloza calling this "a brief intermission" and predicting that prices will be "resuming [their] upward path this week."
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday: "Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World. They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their 'mine droppers,' have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance? There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what's left of their 'Leaders,' but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST!"
Vice President JD Vance, following the negotiations in Pakistan, told a news conference: "We have been at it now for 21 hours, and we've had a number of substantive discussions with the Iranians. That's the good news. The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. And I think that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the United States of America."
What Happens Next
Speaking with Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures, Trump said oil and gas prices could remain elevated by the time November's midterm elections take place.
"It could be the same or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same," the president told host Maria Bartiromo.
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