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By Jasmine Laws
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A new study has found that the likelihood of a significant Atlantic current collapsing is higher than previously expected, sparking concern that urgent action is needed to prevent what would be a catastrophic event for the climate.
The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, also known as AMOC, would cause major shifts in climate, such as moving the tropical rainfall belt, bringing extremely cold winters and summer droughts to Western Europe, while also increasing sea levels by 50 centimeters.
This significant rise in sea levels could have major implications for the East Coast of the United States, including increased flooding and storms, as well as threats to local communities and infrastructure.
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Why It Matters
Rising sea levels impact millions of Americans who live along the coast—around 129 million people, which equates to almost 40 percent of the nation's total population, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.
Those along the East Coast would be particularly affected by the major rise in sea levels if the AMOC collapses, facing increased and extreme flooding, even in the absence of storms.
This comes as the East Coast has already been experiencing a rise in sea levels that is faster than the global average in recent decades.
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What To Know
AMOC is a system of ocean currents that circulates water within the Atlantic Ocean, playing a vital role in weather patterns by bringing warm water north and cold water south, while also transporting nutrients throughout the ocean to support marine wildlife.
In 2018, it was discovered that this current was the weakest it had been in 1,600 years, prompting scientists to become increasingly concerned about the likelihood of the current system collapsing.
Models had previously suggested that a collapse of the AMOC before 2100 was unlikely, but the new study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters indicates that an AMOC collapse may now be somewhat likely—and relatively soon.
The analysis suggests that the potential catalyst of the collapse could occur within the next few decades, with the actual collapse taking place between 50 and 100 years later.
In three scenarios, there was some likelihood that this collapse would occur. Seventy percent of model runs indicated a collapse could occur if carbon emissions continued to rise, while 37 percent of model runs had the same result under an intermediate level of emissions.
Even in a future of low emissions, an AMOC collapse happened in 25 percent of model runs.
What People Are Saying
Nicholas Foukal, a professor at the Skidaway Institute of Oceanography, which is part of the University of Georgia, told Newsweek: "My takeaway from this paper is that it does not change my assessment of a likelihood of an AMOC collapse. The likelihood of an AMOC collapse is low, and this paper does not change that assessment. The use of modeling data out to 2300 or 2500 in this current paper does not change my outlook for the AMOC. Those projections have very large error bars and should be treated as such. I did not see any error bars in this current paper, and given the certainty with which the authors have written this paper, one would assume the authors have a very good grasp of the uncertainty. My feeling is that they do not have a good grasp of the uncertainty."
He added: "An AMOC collapse is indeed extremely worrying and something we need to understand better. It would cause massive disruptions to society by cooling Europe, shifting tropical rainfall patterns and potentially raising sea levels across the North Atlantic. There could be knock-on effects like more frequent and intense storms in the North Atlantic, all effects we should avoid if we can—and we can by stop emitting carbon into the atmosphere. We should do that for a number of reasons, and AMOC is just one of them. But we also need to understand that we are still learning a lot about the AMOC and there are many things we still do not know."
Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who was part of the study team, told The Guardian: "[The results are] quite shocking, because I used to say that the chance of AMOC collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10 percent. Now, even in a low-emission scenario, sticking to the Paris agreement, it looks like it may be more like 25 percent.
"These numbers are not very certain, but we are talking about a matter of risk assessment where even a 10 percent chance of an AMOC collapse would be far too high. We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a shocking finding as well and why we have to act really fast in cutting down emissions."
What Happens Next
Scientists have previously warned that an AMOC collapse should be avoided "at all costs," The Guardian reported.
Update 9/1/25, 3:50 a.m. ET: This article was updated with a comment from Nicholas Foukal.
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