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By Maya Mehrara
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Ukrainians have grown more skeptical of the West and are losing hope of joining NATO, according to a poll.
The poll, which is part of a series of surveys conducted by Gallup, found that respondents' faith in joining the alliance had fallen, along with Ukrainians' confidence in U.S. leadership as an ally and military backer and their likelihood of joining the European Union any time soon.
The findings come more than 1,000 days into the Russia-Ukraine war and amid increasing casualties. A U.S. official told The New York Times they estimated 57,500 people have been killed and 250,000 wounded in Ukraine.
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Newsweek reached out to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for comment via email outside of business hours.
Benedict Vigers, senior global newswriter at Gallup, said in a statement to Newsweek, "While most in Ukraine continue to see their future with the West, there is evidence that hopes for a quick accession to both NATO and the EU have slipped this year. The same is true for how Ukrainians view Washington: as many now approve of U.S. leadership (40 percent) as [they] did in 2021 before the war began (37 percent), down from a high of 66 percent in 2022 in the months after the invasion. Taken together, with the added context of rising support for negotiated peace, these data paint a picture of a country increasingly fatigued with the war."
For the survey, Gallup communicated with 1,000 respondents per poll each year. The margin of error was between 3.6 and 4.3 percentage points. Gallup noted that some occupied territories were excluded from the polling due to a lack of coverage by Ukrainian mobile operators, and the exclusion represents approximately 10 to 12 percent of the population.
When asked if they thought Ukraine would join NATO 10 years from now, 64 percent of respondents said yes in 2022, 69 percent in 2023 and 51 percent in 2024.
Ukrainians' belief that the Eastern European country will never join NATO has almost doubled since the war began, with 12 percent believing this was the case in 2022, 10 percent in 2023 and 22 percent this year.
Those who thought Ukraine would join NATO either 10 to 20 years from now or more than 20 years from now were a small margin and responded mostly the same over the years.
This may be due to the fact that NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte last month did not endorse Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky's "victory plan," which includes Ukraine's joining NATO, although Rutte did state that he and the allies "took note of it."
NATO member Hungary was particularly against Ukraine joining the military alliance.
Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter Szijjarto said that it would spark World War III. "I think that anyone with common sense who thinks this through does not want to create this danger. So the Hungarian position is clear: There is no possibility for Ukraine to join NATO," he added.
Ukraine applied for fast-track NATO membership in September 2022, seven months after Russia launched its invasion.
Ukrainians' faith in the country's ascension into the EU sooner rather than later has also dropped since the war began, the Gallup poll found.
In 2022 and 2023, the majority of respondents (73 percent) thought they would join the EU in the next 10 years. That figure dropped to 61 percent this year.
Meanwhile, the number of those who believed that Ukraine would never join the EU has grown, with six percent saying this in 2022, seven percent in 2023 and 15 percent in 2024.
Like its application to join NATO, Ukraine applied to join the EU soon after the war began and started ascension negotiations in June 2022. The country gained official EU candidate status that year.
As the U.S. has been the largest provider of military aid to Ukraine in terms of weapons, equipment, humanitarian aid and financial assistance, the country's relationship with American leadership is vital.
Ukrainians' views on this have been mixed since 2014 but shifted drastically from 2021, the Gallup poll found.
Respondents' approval of U.S. leadership rose from 37 percent in 2021 to its highest point of 66 percent in 2022. It then decreased to 53 percent in 2023 and has further fallen to 40 percent this year.
Meanwhile, Ukrainians' disapproval of U.S. leadership has risen to 37 percent this year—the highest rate since 2016.
Before exiting the Oval Office, President Joe Biden will give Ukraine $8 billion in military aid, the 66th equipment package sent to the country.
Biden also will send Zelensky at least $275 million in new weapons and recently submitted to Congress a statement of intent to cancel half of Ukraine's economic aid debt—a sum of around $4.65 billion, according to the Kyiv Independent.
Amid concerns that President-elect Donald Trump will reduce funding to his country, Zelensky recently said, "If they will cut, we will—I think we will lose. We have our production, but it is not enough to prevail. And I think it is not enough to survive."
Despite appearing to lose faith in the West, Ukrainians' approval of Germany's leadership has remained steady and high since 2017, according to the Gallup survey, with 50 percent of respondents approving of its current German leadership and 29 percent disapproving.
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