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By Ellie Cook
Senior Defense Reporter
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The last of the U.S.-provided Abrams tanks have made their way to Ukraine and are poised to roll out on the battlefield, but they're unlikely to secure the significant territorial gains that have eluded Kyiv in its months-long counteroffensive.
The first of the long-awaited Abrams tanks arrived in Ukraine in late September, with the rest of the 31 promised tanks joining them as of Monday, the U.S. military confirmed earlier this week.
U.S. President Joe Biden pledged the Abrams tanks to Ukraine in January, which prompted Germany to send its Leopard 2 tanks that Kyiv's armed forces have already been using for months.
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"We have lived up to our end of the bargain," Colonel Martin O'Donnell, a spokesperson for U.S. Army Europe and Africa, told VOA. All of the Ukrainian fighters who trained on the U.S.-made tanks have returned to Ukraine, he told the publication, adding the tanks have been sent along with ammunition and spare parts.
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From now on, it is up to Ukraine "to determine when and where they will deliver this capability," O'Donnell said.
While the tanks do give Ukraine's forces a valuable boost for combined arms maneuvers against Russia, some Western experts and Ukrainian officials say the quantity, the timings and the problematic logistics now shave off much of the impact the Abrams could have for Ukraine.
A total of 31 tanks "can't make the difference," although Kyiv is "very thankful" for the donations, said Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament.
"For this year, it looks like it's too late" for the Abrams to make a real dent in Ukraine's grueling efforts in southern and eastern Ukraine, he told Newsweek. "But its clear the war will not finish this year," he added.
"It is not enough to make a substantial difference in Ukraine," added Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, U.K.
Only outfitting around two tank companies, Ukraine needs to create new supply lines for ammunition and replacement parts, as well as making sure there are enough fuel trucks on hand for the Abrams' Ukrainian operators, she told Newsweek.
"This all creates not only problems for the supply chain but also makes attractive targets for Russian artillery and drones," she said.
Analysts have long identified several qualities in the Abrams that make the U.S. main battle tank less suited to Ukraine's needs. Far heavier than Russian equivalents and the Soviet-era models Ukraine has used, Ukraine's military planners will need to make sure it is able to cross bridges not designed for a tank of that weight, and keep the "fuel hog" tank adequately supplied.
"I do not think that this is going to be a game changer. Quite the opposite," Miron argued. "It creates more issues for the Ukrainian forces than benefits."
Timing has always been a pressing concern. In mid-March, the Pentagon said it would not be sending later-generation M1A2 Abrams, but refurbished M1A1 tanks. "This is about getting this important combat capability into the hands of the Ukrainians sooner rather than later," said Pentagon press secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder.
But the last of these tanks have come as Ukraine's infamous muddy season and the poorer winter conditions start to bite along the front lines. The heavy Abrams is going to be mired down with "limited mobility" in the muddy terrain, Miron said, and will likely need armored recovery vehicles to pry it out of the sludge—as long as the tank's crew aren't under fire.
Ukraine has already said it will battle on despite the weather turning. "In the cold, wet and mud, it is more difficult to fight," Major General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency, said in September. However, "fighting will continue, the counteroffensive will continue," he stressed.
Yet the Abrams tanks will need to be used in "a very tailored way for very specific, well-crafted operations," or else the 31 tanks will not last very long on the front lines, Budanov said last month. "They need to be used in those breakthrough operations, but very well-prepared," he said.
"I think Ukraine will be deliberate in when and where they use it," the U.S. military's O'Donnell said earlier this week. "The Abrams tank is one hell of an armored vehicle, but it's not a silver bullet. Ultimately, it's Ukraine's determination to break through that matters most."
The weather is not the only timing issue, however. The Abrams may be a "great update and upgrade for our army," but it may be a tough ask to try offensive operations without air superiority, Volodymyr Omelyan, a captain in Ukraine's military and a former minister for infrastructure, told Newsweek.
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