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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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President Donald Trump has touted an agreement on Ukrainian minerals as a good deal for the U.S. but experts warn that a long process lies ahead to get the resources out of the ground for American use.
After weeks of tense negotiations over Ukraine, Trump was pleased to brandish his deal- making credentials with Wednesday's agreement where the U.S. and Ukraine can share profits and royalties from the future sale of Ukrainian minerals and rare earth metals.
While both Ukraine and the U.S. have praised the deal that could reinforce U.S. commitment to the war-torn country, a critical minerals expert told Newsweek that there are questions over the quantity and accessibility of Ukraine's resources.
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Meanwhile, a geopolitical expert told Newsweek the deal is unlikely to improve Ukraine's long-term security.
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Why It Matters
Trump has pushed for American access to Ukrainian critical minerals and rare earths as the U.S. looks to lessen dependence on China, the world's largest producer of the highly prized commodity.
As U.S. efforts to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia flounder, Trump can point to the minerals agreement as a sign of progress while Kyiv will hope it secures a U.S. stake in assistance against Russian aggression.
What To Know
Trump told NewsNation the minerals agreement with Ukraine ensures that that the U.S. gets "much more" than the $350 billion he argues the U.S. has provided Kyiv, although other estimates, such as the Kiel Institute say the actual figure is closer to $130 billion.
Negotiated over several months, the agreement was signed in Washington, DC on Wednesday by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Ukraine's First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.
Trump had earlier framed any deal as a way for Kyiv to repay U.S. military aid and President Volodymyr Zelensky was expected to sign a deal in Washington in February before it was shelved after a spat erupted between the presidents in the White House.
What Resources Does Ukraine Have?
The Ukrainian Geological Survey has said around 5 percent of the world's critical raw materials are in Ukraine, including 19 million tons of proven reserves of graphite, critical for electric vehicle batteries.
Ukraine says it also has 7 percent of Europe's supplies of titanium, a third of European lithium deposits and it holds beryllium and uranium. Deposits of copper, lead, zinc, silver, nickel, cobalt and manganese are also significant.
Ukraine is also said to have deposits of rare earth metals which are a group of 17 elements that are used to produce weapons, wind turbines, electronics and other critical technology.
Laura Lewis, distinguished university professor of chemical engineering at Northeastern University, said in February that the accessibility and amount of the minerals Ukraine might have do not seem to be of a level that would even be economically competitive with what the U.S. already has access to.
She told Newsweek on Wednesday that U.S. titanium reserves are small, and the imports from Canada, China, the EU and Africa vastly exceed domestic production so there may be a benefit in securing a Ukrainian supply.
Even though Ukraine has Europe's largest lithium supply, it is small compared to what is available in South America, Lewis said.
Cobalt, which is important for specialty steels and magnets for military applications mostly comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo and while there may be value in sourcing this from Ukraine, the scale of its reserves is not clear, Lewis added.
Meanwhile, she said there may be observations of rare-earth-containing rocks, but there are no significant defined resource estimates of these minerals in Ukraine.
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Joint Fund
The agreement signed Wednesday excludes provisions tying Ukraine's debt or previously received aid to the deal—a significant concession from the U.S.
Svyrydenko said the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund will capture revenues from newly licensed projects but not include existing projects and budgeted income.
Ukraine's prime minister, Denys Shmyhal said the fund, which will invest in extraction of critical minerals, oil and gas, infrastructure and processing, will be split 50-50, with each side having equal voting rights and the U.S. can count new military aid as a contribution.
Shmyhal also said Ukraine would retain full control over its mineral resources, infrastructure and natural resources and would ensure revenue by establishing contracts on a "take-or-pay" basis.
10-Year Plan and EU Accession
Svyrydenko said that for the first 10 years, the profits and revenues of the fund will not be distributed but only invested in Ukraine either in new projects or reconstruction, and the agreement maintains Ukraine's EU integration course.
The deal is hoped to provide an economic incentive for the U.S. to continue to invest in Ukraine's defense and its post-war reconstruction as Kyiv seeks to maintain the supply of American weapons which Trump has threatened to cut off.
However, Eric Golson, a geopolitical expert at the at the University of Surrey, England said that economic investment for resource extraction is not a security guarantee, even if traded for weapons.
What People Are Saying
Scott Bessent, US Treasury secretary said in a statement the deal "signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term".
President Donald Trump: "We made a deal today...I did not want to... look foolish."
Ukraine's first deputy prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, on X: "Together with the United States, we are creating the Fund that will attract global investment into our country."
Laura Lewis, professor of chemical engineering, North Eastern University: "There may be value is sourcing cobalt from Ukraine, the reserves are not clear, but as Ukraine shares a land mass with Russia, which has verified cobalt reserves, there may be benefit to the U.S. there. "
Eric Golson, associate economics professor, University of Surrey: "History tells us the U.S.-Ukraine natural resource deal likely will not improve Ukraine's long-term economic or security position."
What Happens Next
Both sides have welcomed the deal which while did lacking security guarantees from the U.S. have raised hopes in Kyiv that Washington will want to protect its interests if it is invested in Ukraine, as negotiations for a peace deal continue.
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