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By David Brennan
Diplomatic Correspondent
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- Ukraine is preparing its long-awaited counteroffensive against Russian troops still occupying swathes of southern and eastern Ukraine.
- The secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, said that only the government in Kyiv will decide when the operation can begin.
- Danilov also said the impact of the recent U.S. intelligence leaks on the counteroffensive preparations was limited, despite reports that Kyiv had been forced to amend its plans.
The head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council has said that Kyiv would not launch its long-awaited spring counteroffensive if its attacking formations were not ready and stressed that only the government would decide when the operation will begin.
Oleksiy Danilov told The Associated Press Monday it was "only a matter of time" before Kyiv's next counterattack, which Ukraine and its foreign partners hope will be able to liberate significant occupied territory, as did previous offensive operations north of Kyiv, in Kherson in the south, and around Kharkiv in the east.
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"If we aren't ready, then nobody will start unprepared," Danilov said. The government and military are preparing through weekends and with no time off, the official added, telling AP: "There is no vacation in war."
"It's only a matter of time. This time comes with a very high price for us," he said.
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Ukraine has spent months amassing ammunition and weapons platforms—including heavy armor from NATO partners—ahead of the expected counteroffensive. Thousands of Ukrainian troops are also undergoing training at bases spread across NATO member states, as Kyiv pushes ahead in its bid to modernize and specialize its forces.
But the Russian occupiers have also spent months preparing fortifications in those areas most likely to see a fresh Ukrainian offensive. Among the options open to Kyiv are an attack on the southern front around Kherson and Zaporizhzhia towards Crimea, a push deeper into the northwestern Luhansk region, or a counterattack in the eastern Donetsk region, which for months has been among the hottest portions of the front.
Kyiv hopes that dozens of NATO tanks will give its troops the edge in the fighting to come, though the scale and speed of deliveries have frustrated the Ukrainians. So too has the continued refusal of NATO states—led by the U.S.—to provide long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems and Western-made fighter jets.
Foreign partners, Danilov told AP, "promise one thing and do a completely different one," though he did not elaborate on what he was referring to. Overall, Danilov said Ukraine's current stockpile of weapons "will be enough to curb Russia."
Asked whether Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries—the single most expensive piece of military equipment thus far promised to Kyiv—had arrived in Ukraine, Danilov only said: "The answer to your question is simple: everything is good."
The major recent U.S. intelligence leak has thrown some doubt on Ukraine's counterattacking ability. One document suggested the Ukrainian military will unlikely make more than modest gains. Reports suggest Kyiv may have had to amend its counterattacking plans as a result of the leaks, which could have revealed significant information about Ukrainian military deployments and readiness.
But Danilov told AP that the significance of the leaks was limited, suggesting that only the Ukrainian leadership was fully aware of the plans and will decide how to proceed.
"If someone thinks that we report to someone, then he is deeply mistaken," Danilov said. Only in President Volodymyr Zelensky's office "will it be decided when, in what direction, at what pace we will liberate our territory," he added.
'This Is Politics'
Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and chair of the body's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek of the leaks: "I don't see a problem here, because it seems that the leaks don't say anything new in terms of strategy. As for tactical issues, they can be changed relatively easily and quickly."
"Besides, we are not certain about [the] correctness of the materials which were supposedly leaked," Merezhko added.
At least some of the leaked documents are thought to have been modified. The sudden release of so much sensitive material, some of which may be altered, offers all sides opportunities to spread their own disinformation, including Ukrainian planners seeking to hide their true counteroffensive intensions. "This is politics; to view a problem as an opportunity," Merezhko said.
While Ukraine prepares a large force for a counteroffensive, its forward troops on Donetsk—and elsewhere—are being battered by withering Russian attacks. The town of Bakhmut in particular has become a byword for the grinding brutality and devastation that has come to characterize Russian operations.
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There, Russian troops—alongside Wagner Group mercenaries—have been creeping forward for months, seeking to isolate and seize the small town. Ukrainian forces are holding on, with casualties thought to be high on both sides. Kyiv has been criticized by some for the decision to retain and reinforce the town that has been dismissed it as strategically insignificant.
Danilov said Ukraine's defense of Bakhmut has made it "the place the whole world speaks about," while also demonstrating "it's extremely hard to conquer Ukraine by military means."
"We will defeat Russia," Danilov said. "If you have a strong inner spirit, you will definitely win. And we always had it strong. This is something that always annoyed the Russians."
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
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