...
By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Justin Trudeau's resignation as Canada's prime minister signals the latest political shake-up of an ally of Ukraine's fight against Russian aggression.
It comes on the heels of Austria's Chancellor Karl Nehammer stepping down and his ruling conservative People's Party (OVP) agreeing to talks with the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) which has criticized both aid for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.
Neighboring Germany will hold elections next month following the collapse in November of the coalition government of German leader Olaf Scholz.
Read More on World
Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian foreign ministry for comment by email.
...
Why it matters
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20 having criticized continued U.S. military aid for Ukraine's fight against Russia. This may shift the onus on support for Kyiv to fall on other allies, particularly in Europe, where a changing political leadership since his election could complicate matters.
What to know
Trudeau announced he would step down as Canada's prime minister following concern from legislators at his Liberal Party's low preelection polling numbers.
This does not signal any change in Canada's support for Ukraine, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will soon no longer benefit from his warm relationship with Trudeau.
Zelensky has thanked Canada for its military support which includes a NASAMS air defense system and proposed Ottawa increase funding for Ukrainian weapons production.
Austria and Germany
Trudeau's resignation came two days after Karl Nehammer had announced he would step down as Austria's chancellor after the collapse of attempts to form a coalition government without the far-right Freedom Party (FPO).
The ruling conservative People's Party (OVP) Secretary-General Christian Stocker, 64, takes over as interim leader and his party has agreed to coalition talks with the FPO, which got the most votes in September's elections.
As well as harder-right policies such as stricter border controls, the FPO wants to end sanctions against Russia and has criticized military aid to Ukraine.
In neighboring Germany, which is the second biggest provider of military aid for Ukraine, an election will take place next month after the collapse in November of the alliance between Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP).
There is turmoil since Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister, Christian Lindner after the latter refused to support an increased support package for Kyiv by three billion euros ($3.12 billion) to 15 billion euros ($15.6 billion)
Reuters reported that Germany can still provide most of the 4 billion euros ($4.3 billion) pledged to Ukraine even if the 2025 budget is not approved on time due to the political turbulence.
...
However, there is uncertainty surrounding what a postelection Germany might mean for Kyiv, especially given the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD) which wants to end aid for Ukraine.
In September 2024, the AFD became the first far right party to win a state election in Germany since the Nazi era and has been endorsed by Elon Musk.
The owner of social media platform X has also called for a new election in the U.K. and demand the pro-Ukraine Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, be imprisoned, falsely accusing him of failing to bring perpetrators of child sex abuse to justice when director of public prosecutions.
Starmer responded by condemning "lies and misinformation." His Labour Party won a landslide victory in 2024 securing a strong mandate for at least four years and he has reiterated the U.K.'s support for Ukraine.
Another Kyiv ally at the heart of the EU, France, has faced political turmoil after opposition parties backed a vote of no-confidence in December against President Emmanuel Macron's choice for prime minister Michel Barnier.
Cédomir Nestorovic, academic co-director of the ESSEC Center for Geopolitics & Business told Newsweek that populist parties who are gaining more traction in Germany and France will blame economic problems in the countries on the war in Ukraine and so will make it more difficult for them to provide unconditional support for Kyiv's fight.
"If there is no ceasefire, Germany and France will either pressure Ukraine to accept a peace plan, or they will contact Russia directly to craft their own peace plan they will present to Ukraine," he added.
What people are saying
Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau: "This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I'm having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election."
Nestorovic told Newsweek: "It will be more and more difficult for France and Germany to provide unconditional support for Ukraine, because populist parties will soon blame the war in Ukraine for the economic problems they face in their own countries."
What happens next
Trudeau will stay on as Canada's prime minister and party head until it chooses a new leader to take it into the next election, which must be held by late October.
There is no sign that this change in leadership will affect Canada's stance on Ukraine in any way but among European allies, there is more uncertainty.
Austria's next government could see the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) play a significant role which could be problematic for Kyiv given its criticism of military aid and proposals to end sanctions on Russia.
Meanwhile, military support for Ukraine remains a sticking point in Germany, given the dispute between Scholz and his former finance minister and there could be more political pressure against Berlin's aid following February's election.
Update 01/07/24, 10 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Cédomir Nestorovic.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines