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By Andrew Stanton
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Odds of the 25th Amendment being used to remove President Donald Trump from office surged to one of the highest points since he returned to office in Kalshi's prediction market.
Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Trump’s critics called for his cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment following a Truth Social post on Easter in which he dropped the F-bomb and wrote "Praise be to Allah" while making renewed threats against Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the Iran war continues.
Read More on Politics
Only the president’s cabinet can remove a president via the 25th Amendment, and there is no indication that Vice President JD Vance or any other members of his cabinet would be interested in doing so; other members of his administration have remained staunchly loyal and supportive of the Iran war.
While prediction markets are not always accurate, they often reflect real‑time shifts in public expectations.
What To Know
The likelihood of Trump being removed via the 25th Amendment at any point during his presidency reached 39 percent Monday morning—one of the highest points it has ever been since the president returned to office last year. It stayed at around 39 percent throughout the morning.
The prediction market showed a 32 percent chance of removal on Friday.
Only very briefly during the morning of February 5 did the prediction market show a greater likelihood of removal at 42 percent.
Polymarket has a prediction market about the likelihood Trump would be removed via the 25th Amendment in 2026. That rose to 14 percent on Monday, compared to around 12 percent on Friday.
The increase comes as market traders react to recent developments involving the Iran war, including his Truth Social post on Sunday.
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"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F*****’ Strait you crazy b*******, or you’ll be living in Hell—JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah," Trump wrote.
His administration announced a rescue operation for a missing U.S. airman following the downing of an American F‑15E Strike Eagle.
Some Democrats in Congress have called for the cabinet to consider invoking the 25th Amendment.
"If I were in Trump's Cabinet, I would spend Easter calling constitutional lawyers about the 25th Amendment. This is completely, utterly unhinged. He's already killed thousands. He's going to kill thousands more," Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, wrote on X.
Representative Melanie Stansbury, a New Mexico Democrat, posted to X, "The emperor has no clothes. Time for the #25thAmendment. Congress and the Cabinet must act."
What People Are Saying
Utah State Senator Nate Blouin, who is running for Congress, wrote on X: "I support calls to invoke the 25th Amendment, and failing that, the next Congress needs to be prepared to move forward with impeachment hearings. Trump is signaling that he is prepared to commit war crimes, and it's Congress's job to stop him if no one else will."
Progressive commentator Mehdi Hasan commented on X: "How is this not 25th Amendment territory?? Biden said ‘we beat Medicare’ and had to stand down as his party’s presidential candidate. Trump rants and raves like this, contradicts himself like a lunatic from one day to the next, and he stays as president? The GOP is ok with this?"
Anthony Scaramucci, who briefly served as Trump’s communications director during his first term, wrote on X: "It was at this point that our Founders thought the best thing to do would be to remove a mad man who has the executive office. It became more formalized with the 25th amendment, but more people now should be calling for this man’s removal."
What Happens Next
Trump’s cabinet has shown no indication it would invoke the 25th Amendment, but Democratic critics of the president may continue urging members to do so.
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