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By Andrew Stanton
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President Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater in states with battleground Senate races, according to a tracker from The Economist.
But this does not mean it will be plain sailing for the Democrats who are aiming to retake control of the Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections. Republicans presently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats would need to flip three seats to tie Republicans in the chamber, and four for an actual majority.
Nick Puglia, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) press secretary, told Newsweek that Democratic policies are “out of touch with the American people” when asked for comment.
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Newsweek also reached out to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The president’s party typically loses seats during their midterms, so Democrats are hopeful for a 2018-style "blue wave" that could boost them in key races. However, even in a strong year, the Senate map remains challenging for Democrats. With few clear flip opportunities, they are having to turn to states that backed Trump by double digits in the 2024 election, such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio or Texas. Trump’s popularity may be a key factor in whether Democrats are able to make inroads with more conservative voters this year.
What To Know
The president’s approval rating has generally fallen since his return to the White House more than a year ago. Concerns around the economy, foreign policy and his hard-line approach to immigration have caused his support among independents, a key voting bloc, to dissipate—though he still remains popular with the GOP’s conservative base.
Maine and North Carolina are viewed as Democrats’ top targets. Maine is a Democratic-leaning state, having backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points in 2024, but GOP Senator Susan Collins has remained well-liked in the state, having won reelection in tough environments in the past. In North Carolina, incumbent GOP Senator Thom Tillis is retiring. Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC), are running.
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Republicans are eyeing Democratic-held seats in Trump-won states like Georgia and Michigan, as well as Harris-won states Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Meena Bose, executive dean of Hofstra University's Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs, told Newsweek that low presidential approval ratings in states where the GOP faces "unexpectedly competitive elections" can present "campaign rallying opportunities for Democrats."
"Voters do not respond directly to presidential approval ratings in congressional midterm elections, but policy issues that affect presidential ratings—such as the economy, health care, immigration, foreign policy, and more—also are consequential for House and Senate races," she said.
His approval may also influence whether Republicans running in key races link their campaigns to the administration or run independently or against the White House's agenda, she said.
Barry Burden, political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Newsweek that Trump’s approval has reached a point that puts the GOP “in jeopardy heading into a midterm election.
“Because of growing party polarization, approval ratings probably have weaker effects on elections than they did in the past,” he said. “On the other hand, because Republicans also control both chambers of Congress, public displeasure with Trump is somewhat more likely to be see in congressional elections.”
His approval rating could be whether Democrats are able to win “longshot” bids in states like Ohio or Texas, he said.
Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek that midterms are typically “referenda on incumbent presidents.” Many key Senate races are in states where “popular Republican incumbents may be able to survive voter anger at an unpopular Republican president,” he said.
“Republican electoral prospects would be better across the board if President Trump were more popular. The president's unpopularity, along with high-quality Democratic candidate recruitment, are the two main things that give Democrats hope that they will control the Senate next year,” Farnsworth added.
He views Republicans as the favorite to hold the Senate, but that may change depending on candidates who emerge from primaries and the state of the economy.
“Republican Party fortunes will rise and fall along with President Trump's approval rating. The key issue this year seems likely to continue to be the economy. If Trump can't make people feel better about the economy in the coming months, it may be a rough November for Republicans,” Farnsworth said.
Here is a look at how Trump’s approval rating fares in each race.
Alaska
Alaska is a conservative-leaning state where Democrats have gained some ground in recent years. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is facing a challenge from former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat who is viewed as the party’s top recruit in the state.
A Public Policy Polling survey, commissioned by the DSCC, found that Trump remains slightly more popular in Alaska, with a net approval rating of +1 (48 percent to 47 percent). It surveyed 611 Alaska voters from January 16-17, 2026.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Lean Republican.
Georgia
In Georgia, a swing state Trump narrowly carried last November, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is likely to face a competitive challenge from Republicans. Representatives Buddy Carter and Mike Collins, as well as the former Tennessee Volunteers football coach Derek Dooley, are facing off in the OGP primary.
The projection from The Economist showed Trump as having a -18.6 point net approval in the state, though a recent Quantus Insights poll painted a different picture; the poll, conducted among 624 likely voters from September 9-12, showed Georgians split on Trump’s performance. Forty-nine percent of respondents both approved and disapproved of his job performance.
The race is classified as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Iowa
GOP Senator Joni Ernst is not running for reelection in Iowa. Representative Ashley Hinson is viewed as the leading Republican candidate. On the Democratic side, candidates include State Senator Zach Wahls, state Representative Josh Turek and Nathan Sage.
Trump’s approval is estimated at -8.7 in Iowa, according to The Economist’s projection. There have been no recent state polls that asked about Trump’s approval rating and have been made public.
Republicans are favored, the Cook Political Report viewing the race as Likely Republican. Trump carried Iowa by about 13 points in the most recent election. Although it was once a swing state won by former President Barack Obama in both of his runs, it has drifted toward Republicans over the past decade, backing Trump in each of his three runs.
Maine
In Maine, where Collins will face a challenge from either Democratic Governor Janet Mills or progressive favorite Graham Platner in November, Trump does not remain popular. The Economist estimated his approval at -18.4 points.
The latest poll from Pan Atlantic Research showed that a majority of Mainers (40 percent) do view Trump unfavorably. Meanwhile, 59 percent viewed him unfavorably.
Still, Republicans believe Collins’ bipartisan credentials could boost her chances in the state. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up.
Michigan
Republicans view Michigan as perhaps their best pickup opportunity. Former Representative Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost the 2024 Senate race, is running. Several Democrats, including Representative Haley Stevens, State Senator Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, are running.
Trump’s approval sits at an estimated -15.8 points in Michigan, per The Economist’s projection. He carried the state by about 1.4 points in 2024.
A Mitchell Research & Communications poll from late last year, however, painted a rosier picture for the president. It showed that only 51 percent of Michigan voters disapprove of his performance, compared to 47 percent who approve. It surveyed 616 likely voters from November 18-21, 2025.
The race is a toss-up, according to the Cook Political Report.
Minnesota
Minnesota typically leans blue, but Republicans hope it could become competitive. Senator Tina Smith, a Democrat, is retiring. Democratic Representative Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan are running to replace her. Republican candidates, including retired broadcaster Michele Tafoya, former NBA player Royce White and former Minnesota GOP Chair David Hann.
The Economist projects that Trump’s approval rating is -21.9 points in Minnesota, but there is no recent statewide polling to corroborate that projection.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Democrat.
New Hampshire
Harris’ narrowest victory was in New Hampshire, as she carried it by fewer than three points. Republicans are contesting it in November with candidates including former Senator John Sununu and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. Representative Chris Pappas is viewed as the front-runner on the Democratic side.
The president’s approval is estimated to be at -15.3 points in New Hampshire, per The Economist. A recent Saint Anselm College poll showed that 57 percent of New Hampshire residents disapprove of Trump, while 43 percent approve. It surveyed 2,112 New Hampshire registered voters on November 18 and 19, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
It is viewed as Lean Democrat by the Cook Political Report.
Ohio
Voters in Ohio, a former swing state that now is viewed as more Republican, will pick a candidate to finish the rest of Vice President JD Vance’s term in the Senate. Republican Senator Jon Husted, appointed by the governor, is facing a challenge from former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.
The Economist’s projection places Trump’s approval at about -9.2 points in Ohio. But a recent Emerson College poll showed Trump’s disapproval was more modest—48 percent of respondents disapproved of him, compared to 46 percent who approved. It surveyed 850 registered voters from December 6-8, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Lean Republican.
Texas
Texas has proven elusive for Democrats, but they are taking another shot at the state’s Senate race this year as polls point to a potentially close race. Republican Senator John Cornyn is facing primary challenges from Attorney General Ken Paxton and Representative Wesley Hunt. Democratic candidates include Representative Jasmine Crockett and state legislator James Talarico.
Trump’s approval was estimated by The Economist to be -17.2 in Texas, but polls do not quite back that up. The latest Emerson College poll showed a narrow plurality of voters—48 percent—approving of Trump, compared to 46 percent who disapprove of him. It surveyed 1,165 registered voters from January 10-12, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a poll from The University of Texas at Tyler showed that 49 percent of respondents approve and 49 percent disapprove of Trump’s job performance. It surveyed 1,032 registered voters from September 17-24, 2025.
The Texas Senate race is likely Republican, according to the Cook Political Report.
What People Are Saying
Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Newsweek: "The main factor affecting approval will be public views about the economy, especially inflation and the job market. Trump campaigned on fixing both right away, but the public is not convinced that he has been successful. The more he focuses on heavy-handed immigration efforts and distractions such as acquiring Greenland and expanding the White House, the more discontent the public will be with the lack of improvement in the economy. The Epstein files are also a nagging issue for Trump that puts Republicans in an uncomfortable spot."
Nick Puglia, NRSC press secretary, told Newsweek: “Joe Biden and liberals like Jon Ossoff caused historic inflation and opened our borders to millions of illegals. They want to force women to share bathrooms with men, raise taxes, and protect criminal illegals from deportations. Democrat policies are out of touch with the American people.”
CNN data analyst Harry Enten wrote to X on January 20: "The GOP has a depression problem heading into the midterms. Their motivation to vote in 2026 is down 17 pts from 2024. Dem enthusiasm is actually up vs. 2024. The result? The Dem lead on the generic ballot rises from 5 pts overall to 16 pts among those extremely motivated."
President Donald Trump said on Truth Social in November: "So many Fake Polls are being shown by the Radical Left Media, all slanted heavily toward Democrats and Far Left Wingers…Fake News will never change, they are evil and corrupt but, as I look around my beautiful surroundings, I say to myself, 'Oh, look, I’m sitting in the Oval Office!'"
What Happens Next
Trump’s approval rating will be closely watched heading into the midterms, and could be a key question for Republican candidates across the country as they make their cases to voters over the coming months.
Update 1/22/26, 3:10 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Barry Burden.
Update 1/23/26, 9:23 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Farnsworth and the NRSC.
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