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By Andrew Stanton
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President Donald Trump’s approval rating is hampering six House Republicans running in battleground districts in this year's midterm elections, according to a series of new polls commissioned by Conservatives for America.
Trump's approval rating was under water in six of the nine districts polled by the group—including five listed in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) “Districts in Play” targets. Republican incumbents led in all but one of the polls, but the data underscored the competitive nature of the races ahead of November and has major implications for control of the House next year.
Newsweek reached out to the National Republican Congressional Committee for comment via email.
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Trump Approval Underwater in Key 2026 House Races
Democrats are increasingly hopeful about their chances of retaking control of the House in November. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and Trump’s declining approval rating threatens to weaken Republicans’ chances in battleground races.
Conservatives for America’s polls, conducted by Ragnar Research Partners, provided insights into how voters in nine congressional districts across eight states are feeling about Trump ahead of the midterms. The pollster surveyed voters in six GOP-held districts Trump won by a single percentage point in 2024—Wisconsin’s First District held by Representative Bryan Steil, Virginia’s First District held by Representative Rob Wittman, Michigan’s Fourth District held by Representative Bill Huizenga, Iowa’s Third District held by Representative Zach Nunn, Colorado’s Third District held by Representative Jeff Hurd and Arizona’s Sixth District held by Representative Juan Ciscomani.
It also included three more conservative districts—North Carolina’s 10th District held by Representative Pat Harrigan, North Carolina’s 14th District held by Representative Tim Moore and Minnesota’s First District held by Representative Brad Finstad. Those seats are not considered to be competitive for the midterms.
Here is a look at Trump’s approval rating in each district.
Notably, the poll was conducted in the current VA-01. Virginia voters this month passed a redistricting amendment that created more favorable districts for Democrats amid a nationwide redistricting battle. The district became much bluer in the new map.
Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek on Wednesday that Trump’s approval ratings, if not soon reversed, “are likely to be toxic for Republicans in swing districts.”
“Presidents often face disappointed if not angry voters in the midterm elections and the current polling suggests 2026 may look a lot like 2018, the previous Trump midterm that was marked by significant opposition-party gains,” he said.
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That was the case in recent midterms. In 2022, Republicans picked up nine seats amid President Joe Biden’s low approval rating and in 2018, Democrats picked up 41 seats during Trump’s first midterms. Republicans picked up 62 and 13 seats in 2010 and 2014, respectively, the midterms when President Barack Obama was in office.
Republicans currently hold 217 seats to the Democrats' 212, so only a handful of seats flipping would deliver Democrats a House majority when the next Congress convenes in 2027. Trump's approval has fallen in recent months amid economic and cost-of-living concerns, as well as the ongoing Iran war.
DCCC Spokesperson Liam Buckley responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
"Democrats are on offense and Republicans are running scared. With a double-digit lead on the generic ballot and massive performances in special elections across the country, Democrats have the momentum to take back the House this November and deliver on lowering costs for hardworking families," he wrote.
Republicans’ Chances of Losing in These Districts
Trump’s approval rating could chip away at Republicans’ chances of winning key races in November, history suggests. But these GOP polls still give Republicans an advantage in eight of the nine districts polled.
Why Incumbents Have an Advantage—Elections Experts Weigh In
Todd Belt, director of the Political Management Program at George Washington University, told Newsweek the polls show incumbency remains powerful and that voters “can distinguish their own representatives from the president and the institution of Congress.
“Incumbents have several distinct advantages,” he said.
Those advantages include name recognition, fundraising, a lower likelihood of a difficult primary, the ability to take credit for federal benefits, and an advantage in donors and volunteers, he said.
Farnsworth said early polls often show incumbents at an advantage, as their challengers are generally less known to the electorate.
“The bulk of campaigning takes place in the fall, and competitive challengers often can raise the money they need to be better known and effective competitors,” he said.
Poll Methodology
The Conservatives for America surveys were conducted by Ragnar Research Partners among 400 likely voters in each district from March 10-14. The margin of error for each poll is plus or minus 5 percentage points
Democrats Gain Ground in 2026 Generic Ballot Poll
Another new poll released on Wednesday gave Democrats welcome news about their chances in the midterms. Emerson College's survey gave Democrats a 10-point lead over Republicans—their largest generic ballot lead yet for 2026.
Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for a Democratic candidate, compared to 40 percent who said they would vote for a Republican. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from April 24-26 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Other polling has been closer.
A survey from YouGov and The Economist showed Democrats up 5 points (46 percent to 41 percent). It surveyed 1,836 adults from April 24-27.
A poll from HarrisX and the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University showed Democrats and Republicans with 50 percent support on the generic ballot. It polled 2,745 registered voters from April 23-26.
Polling has found that while Americans have soured on Trump’s job performance, Democrats have still struggled with their popularity, largely a result of middling numbers among their own base. Over the first year of Trump’s second administration, many Democrats felt that their representatives in Washington were not fighting hard enough against his policies on matters like immigration.
“Congressional Dems' numbers with Dems are atrociously awful. [Even worse among all voters.] Most Dems [55 percent] think their party has the wrong priorities! Unlike 2006 or 2018, Dem leaders have a negative net approval with Dems! [Senate Minority Leader Chuck] Schumer is on thin ice to hold his job next year,” CNN data analyst Harry Enten wrote on X this month.
Kalshi and Polymarket’s prediction markets gave Democrats an 85 percent chance of winning control of the House, as of Wednesday morning.
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