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By Taryn Pedler
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Voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2024 are less enthusiastic about voting in November's midterm elections than those who supported Kamala Harris, recent polls suggest, adding to signs of a turnout challenge for Republicans as they try to hold onto control of Congress.
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 30 to October 5, 48 percent of Harris's 2024 voters said they were "very enthusiastic" about voting in November, compared with 30 percent of Trump voters.
The poll surveyed 4,506 US adults online and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
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A separate Economist/YouGov poll found a similar gap using a different question. Asked whether they were more or less enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous congressional election years, 52 percent of Harris's 2024 voters said they were more enthusiastic, compared with 34 percent of Trump's.
The YouGov survey was conducted between October 2 and October 5 among 1,513 US adult citizens, including 1,381 registered voters or people who said they had planned to register. The margin of error for registered voters was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Democrats Hold a House Edge As Voters Focus on Prices
This distinction matters for the midterms, as an enthusiasm gap could affect which party's supporters show up, but it does not confirm how many voters will cast ballots.
Meanwhile, a third CBS News/YouGov poll offered a broader look at the potential implications.
Its Battleground Tracker estimates Democrats currently have an advantage in the fight for a narrow House majority, citing opposition to the Trump administration's policies and a Republican base that is less likely to turn out.
The survey was conducted from September 30 to October 2 among 2,166 US adults and had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points for the full sample.
The House estimate gives the enthusiasm findings added significance.
If Republicans have trouble mobilizing their base, that could make it harder to defend their seats.
Cost-of-Living Concerns Add to GOP Turnout Challenge
Cost of living is also a prominent concern across the polling. In the Reuters/Ipsos survey, 52 percent of respondents said a candidate's position on cost of living would be the most important factor in their congressional vote, including 53 percent of Republicans.
The CBS poll also found that many voters felt food and grocery prices were rising and that the administration had not focused enough on lowering costs.
It reported that Republicans who thought the administration was not paying enough attention to prices were less likely to say they would definitely vote.
For Republicans, the findings suggest a two-part challenge involving addressing an issue voters say matters to their decision and persuading less-motivated supporters that the election is worth turning out for.
For Democrats, the polls point to an opportunity if their comparatively higher enthusiasm translates into votes across competitive races.
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The Reuters/Ipsos poll found other potential signs of Republican vulnerability.
Thirteen percent of Trump's 2024 voters said they were unsure who they would support in a congressional election, compared with 7 percent of Harris's voters.
Among all respondents who said they were enthusiastic about voting, 62 percent said they were motivated by opposition to Trump, while 36 percent said they were eager to support him.
Men, a group Trump won by 12 points in 2024, were more enthusiastic about voting and more certain they would cast a ballot than women in the Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Men also favored Democrats over Republicans on the congressional ballot, 43 percent to 39 percent, and had generally favored Republicans in 2025, but since August have leaned back toward the Democrats.
Republican strategist Charlie Gerow said the findings raised the stakes for the party's turnout efforts, while predicting the enthusiasm gap could narrow as Republicans focus on the prospect of Democrats gaining power.
"The enthusiasm has to be ginned up among Republicans because turnout is what's going to determine the outcome of these midterm elections," Gerow said.
Republicans also retain an advantage among voters ages 50 and older, who favored the party by 44 percent to 42 percent in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, though that was down from 8 points in December.
Together, the results point to a turnout concern for Republicans. Voters who supported Trump may be less motivated to vote than their Democratic counterparts, while the cost of living is a leading issue and men's preferences have shifted in the generic ballot.
The polls, however, do not establish why individual Trump voters feel less enthusiastic, or whether they will ultimately stay home.
Both parties are competing for control of Congress in the November 3 midterms.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson and James Debens
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