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By Dan Gooding
Associate News Editor
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President Donald Trump's endorsement of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate on Tuesday created a ripple effect across prediction markets, one week from the Republican primary runoff election.
The president said he was backing Paxton to be the party's candidate in this year's midterms, over Senator John Cornyn, after months of uncertainty over who he would endorse left the outcome of November's vote up for fierce debate.
"Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate," Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday.
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Paxton welcomed the news, posting to X: "I am incredibly honored to have President Trump’s COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT. No one has ever fought harder for the American people than President Trump, and I look forward to championing his America First agenda in the Senate!"
Whoever wins the runoff will be up against the Democratic candidate, state Representative James Talarico.
Prediction market Kalshi showed a surge in Talarico's chances of flipping the seat Tuesday afternoon, with a 3-point gain to 49 percent. The GOP still showed a potential win at 51 percent.
BetOnline showed a stronger showing for the Democrat, with a 56.5 percent probability he will win in November.
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Cornyn v. Paxton: What To Know
When no overall winner was determined in the Republican primary in March, the race went to a runoff. Early voting is underway, with the election on May 26.
Cornyn has been a senator since 2002 and is seen as the establishment-backed candidate. Paxton has been a vocal supporter of Trump's policies and is viewed as the candidate more popular among the president's MAGA base.
Trump had avoided criticizing either candidate, framing both as strong allies, describing them as "great people" at a rally in Texas in February.
Why Is Trump Endorsing Paxton?
On Tuesday, Trump shared a lengthy Truth Social post declaring that he would back Paxton.
"I know Ken well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a WINNER!" Trump wrote, in part.
Trump said he believed Paxton would fight to grow the U.S. economy, cut taxes and regulations, and continue efforts to reduce crime and increase border security.
"Ken Paxton has gone through a lot, in many cases, very unfairly, but he is a Fighter, and knows how to WIN," Trump added. "Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness."
The president's decision didn't receive unanimous support, with Senator Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska Republican, telling Semafor: "How does that help strengthen the president's hand when we lose a state like Texas?"
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What Did Trump Say About Cornyn?
Trump also laid out why he was not backing Cornyn, saying: "John Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough." He went on to say that the senator had not backed him early enough.
Cornyn took to X later Tuesday, saying he had worked closely with Trump and voted with him more than 99 percent of the time.
"He has consistently called me a friend in this race," Cornyn posted. "It is now time for Texas Republican voters to decide if they want a strong nominee to help our GOP candidates down ballot and defeat Talarico in November, or a weak nominee who jeopardizes everything we care about. I trust the Republican voters of Texas."
James Talarico's Chances of Beating the GOP
Democrats believe a favorable national environment, a weakened GOP nominee and reversion among Hispanic and Latino voters that shifted rightward in 2024 could create a perfect storm for them to flip Texas in the November midterms.
A recent poll from Texas Southern University, which surveyed 1,223 likely voters April 22-May 6, showed that Republicans are set for a competitive race against Talarico regardless of whether Cornyn and Paxton prevail in the runoff.
Cornyn held a single-point lead, receiving 45 percent support to Talarico’s 44 percent in the general election matchup, according to the poll. Paxton and Talarico were tied at 45 percent.
Talarico said in a statement Tuesday that it doesn’t matter who wins the runoff.
"We already know who we’re running against: the billionaire mega-donors and their corrupt political system," he said. "For decades, John Cornyn and Ken Paxton have embodied a broken politics that enriches wealthy donors while costs skyrocket for the rest of us. Our movement to take back Texas for working people rises above party politics — because the biggest fight in this country is not left versus right, it’s top versus bottom.”
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