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By Hugh Cameron
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President Donald Trump is touting the U.S. economy as the strongest in the nation's history. While some economic indicators support his optimism, a broader look at the data paints a more-complicated picture.
In a Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump declared that America was "winning like never before," citing strong job growth and stock market performance.
But while the labor market and equities have exceeded expectations in recent months, inflation remains elevated and many Americans continue to express deep concerns about their financial outlook.
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Trump's Economic Victory Lap
Even before firmer signs that the U.S. and Iran were prepared to sign a deal and bring the over-three-month conflict to a close, many had remarked on the "resilience" shown by the economy in the face of critical supply chain pressures and higher inflation.
Yet the disconnect between headline economic data and public sentiment remains striking. While investors have benefited from a booming stock market and employers continue to add jobs, many households say they are still struggling with the cost of living.
“The fairest reading is that the U.S. economy remains resilient, but the claim that this is the ‘best economy ever’ is not supported by the data,” economist Michael Weber, who is also a professor of finance at Purdue University and Berlin's European School of Management and Technology, told Newsweek. “So, I would describe the economy as solid but uneven: job growth is resilient, the stock market is strong but concentrated, and inflation is lower than at its peak but still too high to declare victory.”
Jobs: Stronger Than Expected, But Not Historic
Trump did not clarify what he meant by "record job numbers." In absolute terms, employment is at an all-time high, with roughly 159 million Americans employed as of May. However, population growth means employment totals tend to rise over time.
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However, while not approaching "record" levels, job gains have blown past expectations in recent months even as some feared the labor market could prove another casualty of the conflict.
The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double analysts' expectations and the third consecutive month of stronger-than-forecast job growth.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent. While slightly higher than the 4 percent rate recorded at the start of Trump's second term, it has improved from a recent peak of 4.5 percent last November.
"That is a healthy labor-market reading, but it is not a record number and not unusual by historical standards," Weber said. "It points to resilience rather than an unprecedented boom."
Overall, the economy has added an average of 114,000 jobs per month in 2026, a significant improvement from the first five months of 2025.
Even so, current job growth remains below the pace seen during much of the post-pandemic recovery and trails some stronger years earlier in the decade.
Stocks Continue to Climb
American equities continue to outperform their global peers, with all major indexes rallying to record or near-record highs on the back of an artificial intelligence investment boom. And a number of planned blockbuster listings, kicked off by SpaceX’s record-setting IPO in early June, are expected to provide a further lift in 2026.
“On the stock market, President Trump has a stronger factual basis. Major equity indexes have recently been at or close to record highs," Weber told Newsweek. "But stock-market performance is also highly volatile and not the same as the state of the overall economy.”
As he notes, rising equity prices have coincided with growing concern about high levels of market concentration, with a smaller number of AI-forward tech giants now driving many of the gains and creating what some view as a "bubble" that could precede a correction or crash. As a share of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization, "Magnificent Seven" stocks now account for around 35 percent, up from 23 percent five years ago.
"This combination of elevated concentration and narrow market leadership poses a range of risks for investors, including greater sensitivity to earnings disappointment and the increased probability of a disorderly market correction," Goldman Sachs researchers wrote in a recent report.
Inflation Remains a Challenge
While progress in the Iran talks has seen gas prices fall over the past few weeks, American drivers are still paying significantly more per gallon than before the war. And the spike in fuel costs has helped push economywide inflation to 4.2 percent per the Department of Labor’s latest reading, its fastest annual pace since April 2023.
Trump welcomed the figures—“I love the inflation"—arguing these would lead to an even more satisfying drop once the war ended. But many see rising prices a key vulnerability for the president’s party in this year’s elections, as well as a critical strain on already-struggling households.
And resurgent inflation has also created a bind for his new, pro-easing Federal Reserve chair, who noted last week—after the central bank left interest rates unchanged—that "persistently high prices are a burden for the American people."
Americans Remain Skeptical
Despite improving economic data in several areas, public opinion remains overwhelmingly negative.
A June 17 to 19 poll of 2,519 adults by CBS News found that only 34 percent of Americans approve of the way Trump is handling the economy, compared to 66 percent who disapprove. And on inflation specifically, his support has sunk to 27 percent, with now 73 percent doubting his ability to rein in rising prices.
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released on Thursday similarly showed that only 33 percent approve of Trump’s economic stewardship—his lowest rating across both terms and 3 points under former President Joe Biden’s lowest point.
This growing skepticism of the administration’s economic policy has coincided with a sharp decline in consumer confidence. The University of Michigan’s monthly read on consumer sentiment found that this recovered modestly in June from an all-time low in May, though this month’s levels are still the second lowest in records going back to 1952.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and James Debens.
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