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By Hugh Cameron
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Amid questions over last-minute rescheduling in Donald Trump’s battleground rally tour, the president has argued that Republicans are comfortable enough in Iowa and Kansas without his in-person assistance.
On Thursday, the Republican National Committee (RNC) said that Trump’s planned appearances in the two states would be canceled and replaced with tele-rallies, given the party’s candidates were “in a strong position in Kansas and Iowa.”
Also on Thursday, the president said he felt that Roger Marshall, the party’s candidate, was “doing very well” in Kansas, before attacking a reporter who questioned whether the schedule change was due to him being “sick of traveling.”
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“Oh, you’re sick to ask that question. You are sick,” Trump said in response, before calling the Reuters reporter a “dope,” “disgusting” and “way out of shape.”
The two in-person rallies are now back on—both set to take place on Sunday, the White House confirmed to Newsweek on Friday.
“The rallies were rearranged for scheduling purposes to accommodate dozens of additional tele-rallies that were recently added to the President’s schedule,” a White House source familiar with the plans told Newsweek.
This comes as recent polling shows Republicans may not be as safe in the two states as the party and the president had earlier stated.
Do Kansas and Iowa Need Trump’s Help?
Kansas and Iowa are two of the seats polling identifies as this year’s battleground races—alongside Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. And while Trump won both by a landslide in 2024—13.2 percent in Iowa and 16.1 percent in Kansas—recent surveys show that the GOP’s edge may be less secure than suggested this week.
In Iowa, the Democratic candidate Josh Turek is taking on Republican Representative Ashley Hinson for the open seat left by retiring GOP Senator Joni Ernst. Polling averages from the aggregators RealClearPolling and Decision Desk HQ give Hinson a 0.5 and 1-point lead, respectively. But Turek holds a 2.1-point advantage according to election simulations from RacetotheWH.
While still the favorite, Hinson’s odds have also fallen to 56 percent on Polymarket from 66 percent in early September.
And in Kansas, where the incumbent Republican Senator Marshall is fending off a challenge from Adam Hamilton, RealClearPolling gives a 2.6-point edge to the Democrat. He also holds a 0.3-point lead with RacetotheWH, though Decision Desk HQ has Marshall with a 1-point advantage.
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A recent Washington Post/George Mason University poll—conducted among 801 likely Kansas voters from October 22 to October 26—had Hamilton 10 points ahead of his rival, though most have shown a closer contest. Polymarket users placed his odds at 52 percent as of Saturday morning.
Can Trump Help Republicans?
With control of the Senate hinging on a handful of races, the White House has bet that Trump’s in-person endorsement of battleground candidates and his enduring appeal with certain groups will boost Republican turnout leading up to and on Nov. 3.
During these rallies, the president has urged voters to pretend he is “on the ballot.” And former White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News last week that Trump’s presence could encourage the lower-propensity GOP voters to show up.
“The last ten years have taught us that this country is very evenly divided and our national elections have been extremely close on razor thin margins, which is why paying attention to turnout is critical,” Matt A. Barreto, faculty director at the UCLA Voting Rights Project, told Newsweek in mid-October.
“As we start to see early vote and mail vote patterns, that will offer clues as to how mobilized and energized Democrats are, and whether Republicans are going to fight for Trump or stay home.”
However, polling has not clearly established that Trump’s presence alongside the candidates is helping their chances. The president appeared alongside Michigan candidate Mike Rogers on October 25, but subsequent polling found that he continued to trail Abdul El-Sayed by statistically significant margins. However, controlling for other variables makes establishing the existence or not of a Trump “boost” difficult.
What Polls Show in Final Days of Midterms
Election simulations from RacetotheWH currently give Democrats a 95 percent chance of winning a majority in the House. With 236.5 projected seats, this would mark the largest majority in the lower chamber since 2016, when Republicans had 241. The same forecaster gives Democrats a 78 percent chance of flipping the Senate, with 53 projected seats.
And an Economist/YouGov survey published Thursday—based on a poll of 1,440 registered voters between Oct. 23 and 26—found that a plurality of 44 percent expect Democrats to win the House, compared to 31 percent who believe Republicans will protect their majority.
Expectations were closer in the Senate, though Democrats still were favored by 39 percent to Republicans’ 36 percent.
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