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By Rich Percival
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President Donald Trump is tied with former President Joe Biden in positive public perception but trails former President Barack Obama, according to a national poll released two days before the midterm elections.
AtlasIntel's November 1 survey found that 40 percent of Americans have a positive image of Trump and Biden, compared with 54 percent for Obama.
However, Trump's negative rating is higher than either predecessor's, at 58 percent compared with Biden's 54 percent and Obama's 44 percent.
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The findings provide a snapshot of Americans' views as voting concludes on November 3 in elections that will decide control of Congress for the last two years of Trump's second term.
They measure current perceptions of the three men, rather than comparing their approval ratings at corresponding points in their presidencies.
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How Trump Compares With Biden and Obama Overall
Subtracting negative from positive responses gives Trump a net rating of minus 18 percentage points, Biden minus 14 and Obama plus 10.
The survey interviewed 3,566 U.S. adults between October 28 and November 1 using AtlasIntel's Random Digital Recruitment method. The poll's reported margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The distinction between positive and net ratings matters. Two politicians can attract the same proportion of positive responses while differing in how many people view them negatively or answer "don't know."
These figures also should not be read as a hypothetical election result. Respondents were assessing their impressions of individual politicians.
Trump vs Other Political Figures' Positive Ratings
Former first lady Michelle Obama received a 52 percent positive rating and a 44 percent negative rating in the AtlasIntel survey, putting her positive score 12 percentage points ahead of Trump's.
Meanwhile, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg—all Democrats—each scored 47 percent, seven points above Trump.
Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis matched Trump's 40 percent positive rating. Republican Vice President JD Vance and Democratic former Vice President Kamala Harris each received 38 percent, followed by Democratic former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at 36 percent and California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom at 33 percent.
Small differences between politicians warrant caution: a numerical lead in a poll does not automatically establish a statistically meaningful difference.
Recognition, "don't know" responses and the wording of a question can also affect comparisons.
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What Other Polls Show
A CNN survey conducted earlier this year by SSRS also found Obama substantially more popular than either of his successors.
Released on June 18, it put the Democratic former commander-in-chief's favorable rating at 57 percent, compared with 34 percent for Trump and 30 percent for Biden—a 23-point advantage over Trump and a 27-point advantage over Biden.
Obama's standing among political independents was more than twice that of either man. He also retained near-universal support among Democrats.
Other former presidents occupied the middle ground. Republican George W. Bush received a 42 percent favorable rating and a 33 percent unfavorable rating, while opinions of Bill Clinton, a Democrat, were evenly divided.
In a separate, open-ended question asking which president respondents most admired, Obama led with 30 percent, followed by Trump at 19 percent. Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan each received 9 percent.
The CNN survey interviewed 2,480 adults from May 7 through May 31, using online and telephone interviews. Its overall margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
What Recent Polling Says About the Midterms
Separate October surveys offer additional context about Trump's performance in office and the electoral environment.
One Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between October 22 and 26 found that 32 percent of Americans approved of Trump's job performance. Approval was lower on economic issues: 25 percent approved of his handling of the economy and 20 percent approved of his handling of the cost of living.
Among likely voters, 53 percent supported or leaned toward the Democratic congressional candidate in their district, compared with 44 percent for the Republican candidate.
That survey used Ipsos' probability-based KnowledgePanel and interviewed 1,679 adults. The margin of error for the full adult sample was plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a separate CNN/SSRS survey conducted between October 15 and 18 found Democrats holding a 10-point advantage in congressional preference among registered voters.
More than three-quarters of voters regarded the election as an opportunity to change things in Washington.
That poll interviewed 1,701 adults, including 1,206 registered voters, with margins of error of plus or minus 2.9 points and 3.3 points, respectively.
What Happens Next
All 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are being contested in the elections on November 3.
The results will determine control of the next Congress, whose term begins on January 3, 2027.
For Trump, the immediate test is whether public dissatisfaction translates into votes against Republican candidates and whether those votes change the balance of power on Capitol Hill.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Robert Greenall and Matthew Robinson
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