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By Khaleda Rahman
National Correspondent
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Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio is sounding the alarm about vulnerabilities congressional Republicans will face in next year's midterm elections.
A memo from Fabrizio and his partner, Bob Ward said their polling finds that 59 percent of voters in 18 swing districts are concerned about their personal financial situation, including 61 percent of swing voters and 53 percent of President Donald Trump's voters.
Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment via email.
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Why It Matters
The economy was the top issue for voters in the 2024 election and Fabrizio played a crucial role in helping Trump defeat Vice President Kamala Harris.
The memo suggests voters, including those who chose Trump over Harris, remain concerned about their financial situation despite Trump repeatedly touting how much better off they are now that he is back in the White House. Some recent polls have shown support for Trump's handling of the economy has significantly declined since he returned to office.
It comes as Republicans have been confronted by angry voters at town halls in recent days, while other polls have suggested growing dissatisfaction with the Trump administration's actions in the first month since he returned to office, including efforts to downsize the federal government that have seen thousands of federal government workers fired.
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What To Know
The memo said that polling found contests in 18 swing districts—eight held by Republicans and 10 by Democrats—are essentially tied.
However, it said that in a generic ballot matchup, the survey has the "generic Democrat winning by 5 points, so the Republicans have to play catch-up."
It added that Trump's approval rating in those districts is 2 points under water, with 47 percent approving of the job he is doing and 49 disapproving.
The survey was conducted among 1,000 registered voters across the 18 districts that were rated by the Cook Political Report as toss-ups between February 11 and 12. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points for the full sample.
The poll found that cost of living topped the list of worries among swing and Trump voters, according to the memo. It also found that a majority of voters (63 percent), including 64 percent of Trump voters and 66 percent of swing voters, say helping working-class families is their top priority when it comes to changing tax policy.
Meanwhile, congressional Republicans have been confronted by voters angry about sweeping budget cuts and mass firings of federal workers at town halls across the country last week.
Representative Scott Fitzgerald faced pushback from constituents in West Bend, Wisconsin, who demanded answers about Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency and Trump's apparent shift on the Russia-Ukraine war at an event on Thursday.
Also on Thursday, Oklahoma Representative Kevin Hern was confronted in a heated town hall about federal job cuts and Musk. And Representative Rich McCormick was also met with criticism and told he had failed to "stand up" for voters by supporting the cuts at a town hall in his Georgia district that evening.
What People Are Saying
Trump campaign pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward's memo: "Personal economic issues, especially the cost of living like groceries and healthcare, are top on the minds of voters in the most competitive Congressional Districts. They also prioritize, by a wide margin, helping working class families when it comes to changing tax policy.
"This context helps explain why extending tax credits that allow working families to afford premiums for health insurance they buy directly is supported by four out of five voters, and can significantly help Republicans, currently behind in these key districts, to win in the 2026 midterm elections."
President Donald Trump in a speech at a Republican Governors Association meeting on Thursday: "In presidential races, they say when you win the presidency, usually the midterms don't go well. I think we're going to do great. I think we're going to really increase our margins by a lot."
Michael Steven Lewis-Beck, a distinguished professor of political science at the University of Iowa, told Newsweek: "Egg prices are way up, farmers have to a pay lot more for fertilizer. Farmers in Iowa, along with other American consumers, generally are finding cost-of-living increases from of the trade wars Trump initiated. In addition, his waves of federal job firings are jolting the unemployment rate. Small wonder that public opinion about his handling of the economy shows a leap in disapproval."
What Happens Next
Trump has slapped 10 percent tariffs on China, and earlier this month announced a plan to increase tariffs to match tax rates that other counties impose on U.S. exports.
Economists have warned that tariffs risk raising inflation and that they are likely to be paid by American consumers and businesses either directly or in the form of higher prices. Should that happen, Trump could see a further erosion in support that harms congressional Republicans.
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