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By Mandy Taheri
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With roughly six months until the pivotal midterm elections, the battle for control of the Senate is intensifying as a new survey shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating underwater in all seven battleground states expected to decide which party holds the majority in the upper chamber of Congress.
While Trump remains at the top of the Republican Party, the Morning Consult survey indicated that GOP candidates may face political headwinds heading into the 2026 elections as the president's sliding approval ratings in battleground states could make party hopefuls more vulnerable.
Matt Klink, owner and president of Klink Campaigns, told Newsweek that Trump's numbers "represent a warning light for Republicans, not a death sentence."
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He added that while the numbers show possible pushback on Republicans, Senate races are still often decided candidate-by-candidate and state-by-state. Voters in states like North Carolina have a record of splitting their tickets, in which case Trump’s approval ratings might not necessarily translate into how people vote in the Senate race.
"Six months out, public consent is moving away from the party in power. If Republicans don’t change the story, the midterms could become a classic check-and-balance election," Klink added.
Alex Patton, principal of Ozean Media, told Newsweek in an email: "President Trump and his policy outcomes are a drag on the ticket," adding that, "on almost any measure other than blind partisanship and affective partisanship, the President and the GOP are in a poor position."
The party in the White House historically loses seats in midterm elections, and Democrats have overperformed in special and state elections over the past year, fueling optimism that they can make gains in the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip control of the chamber.
During Trump's first term in office, a blue wave swept Democrats back into power in the House, picking up more than 40 seats. But the president was able to turn a favorable 2018 map into a gain for the Republican majority in the Senate.
Newsweek has reached out to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee for comment via email on Friday.
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Battleground Senate States
The 2026 map is also not a favorable one for Democrats. They must defend all of their current Senate seats and flip four Republican-held seats to regain control of the chamber.
Key races include Democratic targets in Maine, where Republican Senator Susan Collins faces Graham Platner, and Ohio, where Republican Senator Jon Husted is set to face Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown. Democrats also must defend in Michigan and Georgia, which have twice backed Trump in winning presidential bids.
Other closely watched Senate races are unfolding in Alaska, where Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola is challenging Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, and in North Carolina, where Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper is facing former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley in the race to succeed retiring GOP Senator Thom Tillis.
Competitive contests are also taking shape in Georgia and Iowa.
Democrats have also long had an eye on Texas, a reliably Republican state where they regularly come up short in statewide races. However, some recent polls point to a highly competitive race, with Democratic state Representative James Talarico benefiting from Republican infighting ahead of the Republican primary runoff between Senator John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Democrats are pushing ahead full force in Texas to try to flip the seat, with Talarico hosting former President Barack Obama this week to help boost his standing.
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Trump's Approval Rating in Seven Senate Battleground States
A Morning Consult found that Trump’s net approval rating is negative in all Senate battleground states, with the biggest hit in Maine at -17 points.
In Michigan, Trump’s net approval rating is also significant, at -14 points. The poll found his net approval ratings: North Carolina -8, Iowa -7, Georgia -6, Ohio and Alaska -5 and the narrowest in Texas -3.
Overall, the poll found Trump’s lowest net approval rating in Vermont, at -41 points, and his highest in Wyoming at +25.
Newsweek has reached out to Morning Consult for details on the methodology. The report was compiled from Morning Consult's Political Intelligence weekly tracker, with about 2,000 registered voters in each wave.
In response to the Morning Consult's net approval rating survey, National Republican Senatorial Committee regional press secretary Nick Puglia told Newsweek in an email: “Democrats are divided, toxic, and increasingly unhinged. In November, radical leftists like Jon Ossoff and Roy Cooper will be rejected for fighting to raise taxes, open our borders, and release violent criminals from prison.”
Klink added in a statement to Newsweek: "The danger for Republicans is that Trump’s approval becomes the emotional shortcut voters use to make decisions in races they otherwise haven’t fully engaged."
Other Presidential Approval Rating Aggregate Polls
- Many pollsters and aggregators, including Nate Silver, have found that Trump’s net approval rating has hit new lows recently, with the Silver Bulletin reporting it at -18.9 on Friday.
- The Silver Bulletin aggregate finds Trump with a 58 percent disapproval rating and 38.5 percent approval.
- The New York Times aggregate approval rating poll shows a similar landscape, 38 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval.
- RealClearPolling finds a bit smaller gap, putting Trump's approval rating at -16.2.
Trump's approval rating has consistently dipped below 40 percent in recent polls, particularly after the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated attacks against Iran on February 28, starting a war.
Trump and his administration have pushed back on negative interpretations of his approval rating—having previously told NewsMax in a phone interview: "It is a problem I'm not on the ballot. Everyone says, 'If I was on a ballot we'd win in a landslide.' I have some of the best poll numbers I've ever had."
An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released on April 30 showed Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent, with a disapproval rating of 62 percent, record disapproval for either of his terms.
Across every major policy area tested—including the economy, immigration, inflation, taxes and foreign policy—respondents were found to view Trump’s handling more negatively than positively. The poll found that 61 percent of participants believe it was a "mistake" for the U.S. to use military force against Iran.
The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted April 24-28, surveyed 2,560 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
What Polls Show About Peltola, Sullivan in Alaska
Alaska is not ordinarily viewed as competitive, and it backed Trump by 14 percentage points in 2024. But Democrats believe the candidacy of Peltola, who formerly represented the state’s at-large congressional district, can make the race competitive this year.
An Alaska Survey Research poll of 1,946 likely voters conducted April 16-19 found Peltola leading Sullivan 49 percent to 42.5 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. In a previous Alaska Survey Research poll of 1,512 registered voters conducted March 19-22, Peltola had 48.8 percent support to Sullivan's 43.5 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
An earlier Data for Progress survey gave Peltola a slight lead, 46 percent to 45 percent, among the 823 likely voters surveyed October 17-23, 2025.
What Polls Show About Collins, Platner in Maine
Collins has easily won reelection in Democratic-leaning Maine in the past because of her personal popularity and bipartisan credentials. But Democrats believe increased polarization and Trump’s unpopularity could sink her chances this time around. Most polls aren’t reflective of the current landscape as Democratic candidate and Governor Janet Mills dropped out of the race on April 30. Aggregate RealClearPolling shows Platner 6.8 points ahead of Collins.
A Maine People’s Resource Center poll, which surveyed 1,167 likely voters March 20-31, showed Platner leading Collins by 9 points, 48 percent to 39 percent.
A March Emerson College poll showed Platner up 7 points over Collins in a general election, 48 percent to 41 percent. It surveyed 1,075 likely voters March 21-23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Republicans have noted that in 2020, Collins trailed Democratic challenger Sara Gideon in nearly every poll but ended up winning with 51 percent of the vote.
What Polls Show About Cooper, Whatley in North Carolina
North Carolina has backed Republican presidential nominees in the last three elections, including a roughly 3-point victory for Trump in 2024. But Democrats have shown they can win statewide races in the state under the right conditions, making the open Senate seat there a focal point for national spending.
A Carolina Journal Poll found Cooper with an 11-point lead, with nearly half of participants, 49.8 percent, supporting the former governor and 38.7 percent backing Whatley. The poll of 600 people was conducted by Harper Polling May 10-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A previous Carolina Journal Poll conducted by Harper Polling surveyed 600 likely North Carolina voters and found Cooper leading Whatley by about 8 percentage points, 49 to 41. About 4 percent of respondents said if the election were held today, they would vote for someone else, and 6 percent said they were unsure.
An earlier survey from Public Policy Polling conducted March 13-14 among 556 North Carolina voters showed Cooper leading Whatley 47 percent to 44 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
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