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By Sam Stevenson and John Feng
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President Donald Trump’s approval rating map has subtly shifted since the Alex Pretti shooting, according to new state‑by‑state data revealing where his support is holding and where it is drifting away.
White House spokesman Kush Desai told Newsweek: “The Trump administration remains laser-focused on continuing to cool inflation, accelerate economic growth, secure our border, and mass deport criminal illegal aliens.”
Why It Matters
Tracking approval at the state level provides context for policy debates and potential political consequences in Republican strongholds, Democratic-leaning states, and battlegrounds ahead of the next phase of Trump’s term.
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What To Know
Trump’s political map hasn’t flipped since the killing of Pretti by federal agents in Minneapolis, Minnesota, but it has shifted—subtly, unevenly and in ways that reveal where his coalition is holding, where it is fraying and where the battlegrounds are quietly moving against him.
The latest Civiqs data—which surveyed 83,700 respondents between January 20 and February 3, i.e. before and after the fatal January 24 shooting of Alex Pretti—compared with figures scraped just days before the shooting a year into his presidency, show a landscape that is broadly familiar but edged with meaningful changes.
Trump’s Approval Rating in Each State After One Year
Trump's Approval Rating in Each State After Alex Pretti Shooting
Deep Red
A year ago, Trump’s strongest support clustered across the rural and deeply Republican interior. That pattern remains intact in the latest Civiqs data released after the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti.
Wyoming (56 percent approve), West Virginia (59 percent), Idaho (56 percent), Oklahoma (58 percent) and North Dakota (56 percent) still form the backbone of his coalition.
In much of the South and lower Plains, approval consistently sits at or just above majority levels. Alabama (53 percent), Arkansas (54 percent), Kentucky (52 percent), South Dakota (53 percent) and Tennessee (51 percent) continue to offer Trump reliable support.
But those numbers aren’t quite as towering as they were a year into his presidency, when places like Wyoming (65 percent) and West Virginia (61 percent) were among his highest-performing states.
The drop isn’t dramatic, but it suggests a ceiling that has lowered slightly—even in places where Trump’s backing remains overwhelmingly strong.
Deep Blue
At the other end of the spectrum, the states that were most resistant to Trump remain firmly opposed—and in several cases, have hardened further.
Hawaii stands at just 19 percent approval, one of the lowest figures anywhere. Vermont (21 percent), Maryland (24 percent), Massachusetts (27 percent), Washington (28 percent) and California (26 percent) all post disapproval ratings approaching or exceeding 70 percent.
These states were already deeply skeptical of Trump in his first year, and the new numbers show that the gap has widened.
Battleground Drift
The most consequential movement is happening in the middle of the map—states that decide national elections.
A year into Trump’s presidency, many of these battlegrounds were finely balanced. Today, most lean modestly away from him.
Arizona (43 percent approve–53 disapprove), Georgia (38–56), Michigan (37–57), Wisconsin (43–54), Pennsylvania (41–55) and Nevada (41–55) all show consistent disapproval gaps in the low to mid‑teens.
It is not a collapse, but the pattern is unmistakable: these states have taken small but steady steps away from Trump in the months following the Pretti shooting and the unrest that followed.
Even traditionally Republican-leaning swing states reflect this trend.
North Carolina sits at 44–52, while Ohio stands at 46–50—tight margins, but ones that leave Trump narrowly on the wrong side.
Florida (45–51) remains competitive but no longer offers the firmer footing Republicans once had.
Taken together, the new numbers suggest a coalition that is still durable but more constrained.
What People Are Saying
White House spokesman Kush Desai told Newsweek: “Nearly 80 million Americans gave President Trump a resounding Election Day mandate to end Joe Biden’s economic disaster and immigration crisis. The Trump administration remains laser-focused on continuing to cool inflation, accelerate economic growth, secure our border, and mass deport criminal illegal aliens.”
Trump on Truth Social this week: "The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received. Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!"
Update, 02/05/26, 02:27 a.m. ET. This article was updated with a White House statement.
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