By Joe Edwards
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Spaghetti models—computer models that illustrate potential storm paths using meteorological data—suggest that Tropical Storm Jerry could take a northwestward path before eventually curving out to sea.
Why It Matters
While Jerry is not currently projected to directly impact the U.S, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has warned that the system could bring tropical storm conditions to parts of the northern Leeward Islands, in the Caribbean Sea.
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The agency also said Jerry could attain hurricane strength by the weekend.
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What To Know
In a morning update on Wednesday, the NHC said Jerry was located about 750 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
“Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A turn toward the northwest and then north at a slower forward speed is expected late Thursday into Saturday,” the agency said.
“On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night,” it added.
The NHC reported maximum sustained winds near 60 mph and said that Jerry was expected to gradually strengthen in the coming days, potentially becoming a hurricane by the weekend.
The agency said the system could bring 2 to 4 inches of rain across the Leeward Islands, as well as the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later this week. This could trigger flash flooding, particularly in areas of steep terrain, it cautioned.
According to the NHC, a tropical storm watch is in effect for the following locations:
- Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
- St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
- St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
- Sint Maarten
- Saba and Sint Eustatius
- Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: “Jerry is currently battling some wind shear, so any additional strengthening will be slow to occur over the next few days. We do however still expect Jerry to reach hurricane status sometime tomorrow.
“Overall based on the atmospheric conditions, I think it will be possible for Jerry to get to a Category 2 as its moving north of the islands over the weekend. I think Category 3 would be hard based on the wind shear.”
In a video update posted to X on Tuesday, NHC deputy director Jamie Rhome said: “Jerry will intensify into a hurricane over the next couple of days passing just east of the northern Leeward Islands where tropical storm watches are now in effect, then turn sharply north over the central Atlantic, potentially impacting Bermuda over the weekend.
“For the East Coast of the United States Jerry will move far enough offshore that it will not have direct impacts… but may increase the rip current risk over the weekend.”
What Happens Next
Forecasts are sometimes subject to change, and the NHC issues regular forecast updates on its website and social media channels.
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