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By Martha McHardy
US News Reporter
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Kentucky Republican Representative Thomas Massie's political fortunes have shifted dramatically, with new polling showing a steep drop in support after an aggressive MAGA-backed push to unseat him.
According to a new internal poll by McLaughlin and Associates, posted by Donald Trump on his Truth Social account, Massie's favorability rating dropped from 54 percent in June to 43 percent this month, while his unfavorability rating rose to 54 percent from 40 percent. His overall job approval slipped from 52 percent to 39 percent.
The poll attributed Massie's falling support to a barrage of ads from MAGA Inc, a pro-Trump super PAC that spent $800,000 on a recent TV campaign in his district, following an earlier $1 million ad buy targeting him.
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"MAGA Kentucky's advertising campaign has turned Thomas Massie's polling numbers up-side-down, leaving him exposed and extremely vulnerable in a Republican primary election for Congress," the poll stated.
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But a spokesperson for Massie dismissed the poll, telling Newsweek: "This poll does not reflect reality in Kentucky's 4th district."
They also dismissed that the MAGA Inc super PAC was having an impact on Massie's support. "MAGA Kentucky is not MAGA and not Kentucky. It's three socially liberal globalist billionaires who are upset Congressman Massie doesn't vote for wars and foreign aid," they said.
Meanwhile, the statement described the pollster as unreliable, citing past inaccuracies. "He is well known for bad results, and is not the pollster the Trump team uses for serious polls."
In response, John McLaughlin told Newsweek, "We were the only pollster in the 2016 and 2024 primary campaign, and our polls were very accurate."
He added, "Massie needs to stop voting with the Democrats and start voting with President Trump."
McLaughlin and Associates has worked for Trump since 2011 and was described as his "most trusted pollsters" by The Hill. Trump used polling company Fabrizio, Lee and Associates for his 2024 general campaign as well as McLaughlin and Associates.
The poll was conducted between August 10-12 among 500 likely Republican voters from Massie's fourth congressional district, a seat he has held since 2013. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Why It Matters
Massie endorsed Trump in 2024 but has since broken with him on key issues, including airstrikes on Iran and the U.S. debt ceiling. Earlier this year, he was one of only two House Republicans to vote against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—the signature legislation of Trump's second term—prompting Trump to label him "lazy," "disingenuous," and the "worst Republican congressman."
Trump has threatened to find a Republican to challenge Massie in the 2026 primary. In June, Trump's team launched the MAGA Inc. super PAC devoted to defeating Massie in the May 2026 primary.
The polling suggests that Trump's targeted campaign against Massie is working and that a sitting president can rapidly erode an incumbent's support within their own party.
What To Know
Amid the backlash between Massie and Trump. the poll shows that perceptions of Massie's loyalty to Trump have soured over the summer. In June, 49 percent of voters said he did not support Trump and his policies, while 42 percent said he did. Today, 62 percent say he does not, and just 25 percent say he does. "Standing with Democrats and voting against President Trump's tax cuts and policies has put Thomas Massie at odds with the Republican base," the poll stated.
As a result, Massie's standing has slipped sharply, with 53 percent of voters saying they are now less likely to support him based on what they have seen, read, or heard.
Meanwhile, Massie's "reelect score"—the share of voters inclined to back him for another term—has fallen from 41 percent in June to 30 percent. The poll notes that incumbents under 40 percent are "considered vulnerable in a primary," and Massie's numbers are even lower among key Republican blocs: conservatives (28 percent), pro-life voters (29 percent), evangelicals (27 percent), voters without a bachelor's degree (27 percent), and seniors (22 percent). Fifty-seven percent of GOP primary voters also said they would be more likely to back a Trump-endorsed challenger.
Last month, Massie told reporters that Trump's threats to back a primary challenger against him next year "is going to backfire tremendously" and that "millions of dollars" will be wasted against him, possibly costing Republicans control of the House.
Massie's clashes with Trump date back to the president's first term. In 2020, he opposed Trump's COVID relief package, prompting Trump to call for him to be thrown "out of the Republican Party." Last year, Massie was one of just six House Republicans to endorse Florida Governor Ron DeSantis over Trump in the GOP presidential primary.
What People Are Saying
McLaughlin and Associates wrote: "MAGA Kentucky's ad campaign has been extremely effective in driving up awareness and influencing voter opinions."
It added: "Republican primary voters are rejecting Thomas Massie's record of standing with Democrats against President Trump's tax cuts and policies. A Republican candidate endorsed and backed by President Trump would be in a strong position to win."
In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Massie said: "Although there were some conservative wins in the budget reconciliation bill (OBBBA), I voted No on final passage because it will significantly increase U.S. budget deficits in the near term, negatively impacting all Americans through sustained inflation and high interest rates."
What Happens Next
The midterms are set for November 2026. A challenger for Massie has not yet emerged.
Update 8/15/25, 08:28 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from a spokesperson for Massie.
Update 8/16/25, 1:03 p.m. ET: This article was updated with a comment from John McLaughlin and additional information.
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