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By Andrew Stanton
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Representative Thomas Massie is leading Trump-backed primary challenger Ed Gallrein in a new poll of Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District Republican primary.
Massie responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek: "I’m encouraged that public polls reflect what our internal polls show—Ed’s basement campaign has stalled. He’s turned down five debates so far and his strategy of just “phoning it in” using millions of dollars of ads from his woke billionaire donors isn’t working," he wrote.
Newsweek also reached out to the Gallrein campaign for comment via email.
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Why It Matters
Massie has increasingly found himself at odds with President Donald Trump since his return to the White House last year, challenging the administration on matters like the release of the documents related to the late financier Jeffrey Epstein and U.S. policy toward Iran.
The race is a test for Trump ahead of this year's midterm elections. The president’s endorsement has in the past been able to sink other Republicans such as former Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming, but the race will indicate the strength of his endorsement as his approval rating continues to decline across the country amid economic and foreign policy concerns.
Whoever wins the primary is likely to become the next member of Congress. Massie represents Kentucky’s 4th District, a solidly conservative seat that backed Trump by more than 35 points in the 2024 election.
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What to Know
A Quantus Insights poll released Thursday found that Massie retains an advantage but has not consolidated a majority, with undecided voters numerous enough to alter the race’s direction. It surveyed 438 likely Republican primary voters from April 6-7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
It found Massie with 46.8 percent support to Gallrein’s 37.7 percent, while 14 percent said they were undecided.
The poll found that 51.4 percent of respondents viewed Massie favorably, compared with 39.8 percent who said the same of Gallrein. Meanwhile, 46.4 percent expressed an unfavorable opinion of Massie and 38.3 percent did so for Gallrein.
Name recognition differed sharply between the two Republicans.
Only 2.3 percent of respondents said they had not heard enough about Massie to form an opinion, while 21.9 percent said the same about Gallrein.
Massie, a libertarian-leaning conservative, has represented Kentucky’s 4th District since 2012 and has frequently broken with Republican leadership on spending and foreign policy.
Those disagreements have placed him at odds with Trump, who has labeled Massie disloyal and urged Republican voters to back an alternative.
Another poll this week similarly showed Massie with a single-digit lead over Gallrein. The Big Data Poll survey of 433 likely voters from April 3-7 showed Massie with 52 percent support and Gallrein with 48 percent.
Trump has been a vocal proponent of Gallrein, blasting Massie as the "Republican Party’s Worst ‘Congressman,’ EVER" in a Truth Social post in March.
"Thomas Massie, sometimes referred to as Rand Paul Jr. because he only votes ‘NO,’ is A COMPLETE AND TOTAL DISASTER as a Congressman, and a Human Being. He is disloyal to the Republican Party, the People of Kentucky and, most importantly, he is disloyal to the United States of America! He is a MISFIT, who should be voted out of Office, ASAP," Trump wrote.
What People Are Saying
The Quantus Insights polling report: "Our polling shows Thomas Massie with a clear advantage in KY-4. He has the stronger ballot position, the deeper reservoir of prior support, and a district electorate that appears more open to independence than simple allegiance politics. Gallrein still has a path, but for now Massie remains the candidate to beat."
Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, in a polling release: "This appears to be a close race that has tightened over the previous month, and we’ll poll it again next month. But for now, Rep. Massie’s lead is holding because the challenger has not been able to expand his appeal beyond older voters in isolated parts of the district."
Representative Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican, on X after Trump called him a "moron" during the National Prayer Breakfast in February: "The President of the United States called me a moron at the National Prayer Breakfast this morning because I’m still fighting for what he promised the American people: Reduce big spending, DOGE, no new wars, end foreign aid, defend 1A 2A 4A, prolife, and expose sex traffickers."
What Happens Next
The undecided share of voters leaves some room for movement as the primary approaches, particularly if Trump increases his direct involvement in the race. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as safe for Republicans in November, regardless of who secures the party’s nomination.
Update 4/9/26, 2:49 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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