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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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A new Texas poll suggests Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds an edge over longtime Senator John Cornyn in the GOP Senate primary runoff, even as voters appear less swayed by a potential endorsement from President Donald Trump.
Why It Matters
Texas Republicans are heading into a high-stakes runoff that will shape the party’s direction in a pivotal Senate race.
Read More on Politics
The contest has drawn national attention as President Donald Trump weighs whether to step in.
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What To Know
Fresh polling from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) points to a volatile runoff race between Paxton and Cornyn, with the former starting from a stronger position among likely GOP voters.
The survey, conducted March 7–9 among 781 likely voters, showed Paxton leading Cornyn 49 percent to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
When voters were asked to factor in a hypothetical Trump endorsement, Paxton’s advantage shifted depending on who received it.
If Trump were to back Paxton, the attorney general’s lead widened significantly, jumping to 58 percent compared with Cornyn’s 32 percent.
A Cornyn endorsement, however, produced a much tighter contest.
Under that scenario, Paxton still narrowly led 44 percent to 43 percent, while uncertainty rose to 13 percent.
Favorability numbers help explain the dynamic.
Polling from the Texas Politics Project conducted February 2–16 among 1,300 registered Texas voters with a plus or minus 2.72-point margin of error, found Paxton holding a stronger net favorability (+34 points) than Cornyn (+29) among Republicans, underscoring Paxton’s advantage with the GOP base.
The runoff follows a bruising Republican primary round in which neither candidate cleared the 50 percent threshold.
Cornyn, a four‑term senator, finished just ahead of Paxton, forcing the May showdown that has since become a proxy fight over the GOP’s future in Texas.
Trump has so far stopped short of endorsing either candidate, though he has indicated an endorsement is coming.
His decision has been closely watched, given his influence in Republican primaries and Paxton’s close alignment with Trump‑era politics.
What People Are Saying
Paxton wrote on X on March 4: “Thank you, Texas. Last night, in a historic failure for John Cornyn, he failed to get nearly 60 percent of the GOP vote after spending $100 million. It's time to finish the job in the runoff. Help me fire John Cornyn once and for all.”
Cornyn said on March 3: "I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we've worked so hard to build over these many years."
What Happens Next
Attention now turns to whether Trump formally enters the race and how campaigns adjust their strategies ahead of the May 26 runoff.
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