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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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Texas Republicans have suffered a double blow in a new poll that shows Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico running ahead of both of the GOP candidates heading to a primary runoff.
Last week, Talarico, a state House Representative, won the state's Democratic primary to run for GOP Senator John Cornyn's U.S. Senate seat, topping Representative Jasmine Crockett with 53 percent of the vote to Crockett's 45.7 percent.
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Talarico, first elected in 2018, has presented himself as a moderate focused on economic populism and broad voter appeal. He advanced to the November general election to face either Cornyn or Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are headed to a runoff scheduled for May 26 after neither secured a majority of the vote in the Republican primary on Tuesday.
According to a new poll, Talarico holds a slim lead over Cornyn or Paxton and has a higher favorability rating than both candidates.
Newsweek has reached out to representatives for all three candidates via email for comment outside of normal business hours.
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Why It Matters
Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, but the party is hoping to pick up key seats in the midterm elections. Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a military veteran and union leader, won state Senate District 9 by more than 14 percentage points earlier this year, buoying optimism within the party.
Overall, this year, Republicans are defending a 53-seat majority in the Senate, with 35 seats up for grabs. The Democrats face a challenging map to regain the majority, needing to flip four current GOP seats with few targets available. If Texas is in play, it would be a huge target for Democrats, strengthening their chances to win the upper chamber and provide a foil to President Donald Trump's policy agenda.
What To Know
The poll of 576 Texas voters was conducted between March 4 and March 5 by Public Policy Polling on behalf of Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic organization, found that, if pitted against Cornyn, Talarico received 44 percent of the vote to Cornyn's 43 percent. If Paxton is the GOP candidate, Talarico gained 47 percent of the vote to Paxton's 45 percent.
However, both results fall within the poll's plus or minus 4.1 percentage-point margin of error.
The poll also found that Talarico is by far the most favorable candidate. He had a net favorability rating of +6 percentage points. Cornyn's favorability rating was -28 points, and Paxton's was -24.
Another recent poll, conducted by YouGov and the University of Houston before Talarico's victory, showed a tight race regardless of who becomes the nominee. Cornyn led by one point (44 percent to 43 percent), while Paxton led by two points (46 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 1,502 likely voters from January 20 to January 31 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
The prediction market platform Kalshi, currently gives the GOP candidate a 63 percent chance of winning and Talarico a 37 percent chance.
Trump has yet to endorse, but is expected to back Cornyn in the runoff, according to The Atlantic, citing people familiar with the matter.
What People Are Saying
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said on X on March 4: “Thank you, Texas. Last night, in a historic failure for John Cornyn, he failed to get nearly 60% of the GOP vote after spending $100 million. It's time to finish the job in the runoff. Help me fire John Cornyn once and for all.”
Texas state Representative James Talarico said on March 3: “This movement is about whether the people will hold the power in this state and this country. We launched this underdog campaign six months ago in my hometown of Round Rock, Texas, and since then, tens of thousands of Texans have shown up to rally with us in every corner of the state.”
What Happens Next
The midterm elections take place in November, but the GOP runoff is scheduled for May 26 in Texas.
Paxton has said he would consider dropping out of the race if Republican leaders agree to eliminate the filibuster and pass President Donald Trump’s SAVE America Act.
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Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the prediction market operator’s terms and conditions for important details. The probabilities referenced in this story are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Updated 3/9/2026 at 12:01 p.m. EST: This article was updated with additional information.
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