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A lot of Texans don’t think much of James Talarico. It’s not that they dislike him. They just don’t know him.
And therein lies the Talarico trap.
The 36-year-old Democratic member of the Texas House of Representatives is the new Beto O’Rourke. Talarico is the party’s best chance since O’Rourke of taking a Senate seat from the Republicans in Texas.
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There’s a lot of excitement among Democrats in Texas, who are looking at the state’s polling and daring to dream.
...
It’s more than three decades since Texas had a Democratic senator. Could Talarico be the man to turn Texas blue again?
The danger for Democrats is not that Talarico is unpopular (not yet, anyway) but that he is undefined.
The Large and Dangerous Knowledge Gap
At first glance, Talarico’s favorability numbers look good. They’re certainly not bad.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project statewide survey in mid-February found that 33 percent of those polled had a favorable view of Talarico versus just 15 percent unfavorable. That's better than both his potential Republican rivals, incumbent Senator John Cornyn (31/39) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (31/41).
But there's a big caveat: Many more voters say they don't know or have no opinion.
That's at 34 percent for Talarico versus 13 percent for Cornyn and 12 percent for Paxton: A big chunk of voters don’t know what to think about Talarico yet. It’s an opportunity for Democrats, but a dangerous hole in the campaign, too.
Back in February 2018, there was a lot of energy and optimism behind Beto O'Rourke's campaign against Ted Cruz. At the time, he had a don’t know/no opinion rating of almost 40 percent.
O'Rourke was a clean candidate with little political baggage, save for some vanilla liberal positions on gun reform and abortion rights. He raised more than $80 million for his campaign.
He ran Cruz fairly close, also benefiting from the anti-Trump-"Russiagate" political climate, but still lost by 2.6 points.
In Texas, high "don’t know" numbers rarely break evenly. They tend to harden along partisan and cultural lines once attack advertising begins—particularly on social issues.
That dynamic helped define O’Rourke late in 2018 and ultimately capped his ceiling.
Is Talarico a stronger, better-funded candidate than the charismatic anti-politician Beto O'Rourke? It's an open question.
MAGA Republicans Know How To Campaign on Social
Since Trump's 2016 campaign, Republicans, especially those in the MAGAsphere, have been highly effective at digital activism on social media. And they've already turned their sights on Talarico in Texas.
MAGA influencers have resurfaced a 2023 clip of Talarico interview on "A Superbloom Podcast," in which he is asked to name something he loves that’s not family or friends.
"I love—and I just say this because it's on my mind—the trans children who showed up yesterday at the state capitol to advocate for their humanity," Talarico says. "They shouldn't have to, but it was an inspiration to watch."
Clipped, distilled, and reshared, the comment becomes, to use one MAGA influencer’s word, "creepy," Talarico loves trans kids.
But that’s not the only clip of Talarico on the trans issue, red hot in red Texas, getting new airtime now he’s the Democratic nominee.
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In another clip shared on social media, Talarico calls trans kids "God's children, made in God's own image," adding: "There's nothing wrong with them, nothing at all. They are perfect, they are beautiful, and they are sacred."
Then there’s the resurfaced clip of Talarico saying "our trans community needs abortion care too"—a double-whammy for conservatives.
It’s MAGA-promoted clips like these that threaten to bury Talarico’s campaign alive in its own knowledge hole. Talarico only wins in Texas if swing voters and moderate conservatives show up for him—will they, if this is how they learn what he believes?
These social issues are not background noise, they are sorting mechanisms. For low-information voters, a handful of viral clips can become a candidate’s entire biography.
This is not an argument about the fairness of these attacks. But their potency is undeniable. Talarico’s campaign needs to have a compelling and clarifying response, one that sticks as well as the muck.
Talarico Rubs Against Conservative Texas
It’s not just his positions on trans rights—Talarico once claimed there are six biological sexes—but other culture war touchstones too that he may struggle to reconcile with a Texan electorate.
To name but a few: Jesus Christ is "radical feminist," God is "nonbinary," there should be a "giant welcome mat" on "our front porch" of a southern border, DEI should be taught in schools, a need to reckon with his "own whiteness, my own masculinity"…
In one old X post, Talarico is framed as describing whiteness as a disease. In truth, he’s calling white racism a disease and says he’s immune from becoming a victim of it because he is himself white.
But such comments are easily wrenched from their context and weaponized. There are plenty in Talarico’s archive for his opponents to work with.
As Texas Republican Congressman Lance Gooden put it succinctly: "Talarico is too woke, too radical, and out of touch with Texans!"
But MAGA Is Vulnerable to Talarico Too
Still, Talarico is competitive in the race as things stand, and Democrats have their own version of him to sell voters: A devoutly Christian and deeply moral politician who wants to unify Texans, not divide them.
Most polls show Talarico currently within the margin of error against both Cornyn and Paxton, who are heading to a run-off in a bitter Republican fight that risks turning a lot of voters off if things get ugly.
Both are unpopular candidates, but for different reasons.
Cornyn embodies the kind of establishment swampy D.C. Republican politician that MAGA loves to hate, and that voters more broadly have grown sick of.
Paxton, meanwhile, carries baggage from decades of scandal, from questions over his investments to alleged infidelity, and a firebrand style of MAGA politics that moderate conservative voters find off-putting.
Trump is yet to put his thumb on the scale in the race, promising to reveal his endorsement soon and ordering the other candidate to drop out immediately when he does.
Either way, it’s something of a lose-lose for MAGA. Trump picks Cornyn, who they dislike, and sparks a civil war if Paxton chooses to stay in the race. Some MAGA Republicans may even stay at home in November if Cornyn’s on the ticket.
Or Trump picks Paxton, and Talarico becomes more competitive as a candidate.
These Republican weaknesses are real, but, still, they only matter if Democrats can define Talarico as an acceptable alternative.
Defining Talarico
Either way, it’s an uphill struggle for Talarico, a paradox of devoutly Christian wokeness.
Texas Democrats are right to believe this race is competitive. But that cuts both ways.
If Talarico remains undefined, Republicans will define him—and they will do so through the sharpest cultural lenses available, fairly or unfairly.
And MAGA is already on the front foot.
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