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By Giulia Carbonaro
Senior Reporter
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There are more homes for sale in Texas now than at any point in the past 14 years, according to recent data, indicating that the Lone Star State's housing market has strongly shifted in favor of buyers.
For locals saw the state's supply of for-sale homes quickly shrink during the pandemic while prices skyrocketed, the current inventory glut is a welcome change which promises to finally bring down the cost of home-buying.
What Is Happening in the Texas Housing Market?
The supply of homes for sale in the Texas market had plunged in the aftermath of the pandemic, when historically low mortgage rates sparked a home-buying frenzy in the country and especially in the state, which was particularly appealing to remote workers for its low tax environment, good weather, and relative affordability.
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But inventory has grown in the last couple of years thanks to a construction boom in the state, as local developers tried to catch the wave of higher demand. Much of this new inventory, however, landed on the market when some of the conditions that have fueled the explosion in home-buying in the state—low mortgage rates and increased domestic migration—had vanished.
As a result, many new homes have struggled to find buyers—especially as longstanding affordability issues have led to a pileup of existing home listings in Texas as well.
Between February and May 2025, Texas reported four consecutive months of year-over-year declines in the number of homes sold in its market, according to Redfin. During the same four months, the state's housing market reported four consecutive months of double-digit inventory growth.
But between June and July, sales have bounced back—possibly because home-buying has become more affordable in the state thanks to the pressure exercised by dwindling demand and growing supply.
As of June, the latest data made available by the Texas Real Estate Research Center of the Texas A&M University showed that there were more than 156,000 homes listed for sale in the state, up 27.2 percent from a year earlier and the highest level on record dating back to 2011.
Redfin data for July put the latest number of active listings in Texas even higher, at 192,871, up by a staggering 18.9 percent year-over-year.
In the same month, however, the center reported that home sales were up 7.7 percent year-over-year statewide, while home prices were almost flat from a year earlier at $345,000. According to Redfin's latest data, home sales were up 1 percent in July from a year earlier and home prices were down 0.6 percent.
What Does This Mean for Texas' Homebuyers?
The current inventory glut, combined with strained demand, puts the Texas housing market in a similar situation to that faced by the state in the aftermath of the Great Recession. For buyers, this means that the market is strongly in their favor: they have more options and more negotiating power, which in turn can lead them to obtain significant price cuts from sellers facing increased competition.
In June, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center, 66.7 percent of listings had price cuts, with the average reduction at $13,000.
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Many have already realized that this is a good time for them to buy, as suggested by the latest sales data. In June, the state recorded 32,157 closed sales—the equivalent of 8.2 percent of all U.S. home sales in that month.
This improved affordability in Texas could potentially get another boost from lower mortgage rates, which could materialize if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates this month, as widely expected. While the central bank does not set mortgage rates, these usually move together with the yield on the 10-year Treasurys, which reflects the health of the U.S. economy.
A boost in demand could also bring back builders to the market, as the current supply headwinds have led many to cut on new construction. According to the Texas Real Estate Research Center, single-family housing permits fell year-over-year in June by 7.2 percent statewide. Some cities reported much bigger declines: in Amarillo, permits fell by 20.5 percent; in Austin, by 8.7 percent; in Dallas, by 9.6 percent; in Houston, by 7.3 percent; and in San Antonio, by 19.6 percent.
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