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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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More Democrats than Republicans in Texas are participating in early voting in the upcoming primary election, in what has been described as an "unusual" shift.
Early voting for the Senate primary election began on February 17 and runs through February 27. Secretary of State Jane Nelson said in the first week of early voting, more than a million Texans had cast ballots.
CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten said on Wednesday that Democrats had seized a lead in terms of turnout and said that this was "a massive shift." He called it "unusual" and said that the last time this happened was in 2002, 24 years ago.
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Why It Matters
The primaries take place before the fast-approaching midterm elections which could change the balance of power in the U.S. Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House tends to do better in midterm elections.
Republicans have slim majorities in both chambers of Congress and losing just a handful of seats to the Democrats could allow the party to hamper the Republican Party's agenda during the rest of President Donald Trump's term.
Republicans have not lost a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades, so Democrats voting in large numbers may be particularly alarming for the GOP. However, recent polling suggests that the Republican Party will still win the Senate election in November.
What To Know
Enten said that a comparable point in the midterm primary cycle in 2002, when 38 percent of the ballots cast were in the Democratic primaries, while 62 percent were in the GOP primaries. But in 2026, 53 percent of the ballots cast thus far have been in the Democratic primary and 47 percent have been in the Republican primary.
He added that prediction market odds suggest Democrats have a 60 percent chance of having a higher primary turnout while the GOP has a 40 percent chance.
"Primary turnout matters," he said, suggesting the party with higher numbers is more likely to win the election.
James Talarico, a Presbyterian pastor is battling it out with Representative Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic nomination in the midterms.
On the Republican side, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing Senator John Cornyn and Representative Wesley Hunt.
The election comes after conservative activist Leigh Wambsganss lost out on state Senate District 9, to her Democratic rival Taylor Rehmet, a military veteran and union leader, in an election held earlier this month. Rehmet won by more than 14 percentage points in the traditionally Republican district, according to The Associated Press. Trump won the district by 17 points in the November 2024 presidential election.
What People Are Saying
Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat, previously told Newsweek: “We are living in unprecedented times, and so I think an unprecedented candidate is exactly what it's going to take to actually be able to flip this seat.”
Representative Wesley Hunt, a Texas Republican, wrote on X earlier this month: “Let me be very clear: I am the strongest general election candidate in this race. From either party. Period. The dirty little secret the Cornyn protection racket won’t tell you? I beat every Democrat on the ballot. By MORE. Every. Single. Time. I outperform Cornyn. I outperform Paxton. That’s why they’re scared. That’s why the swamp is nervous. That’s why they’re attacking. Because I’m the Democrats’ worst nightmare. If I’m the nominee, this seat stays RED. If I’m the nominee, Texas wins.”
Texas Secretary of State Jane Nelson said in a statement: “Texans are already making their voices heard in this year’s primary election. Whether you have already voted or plan to vote on March 3, reviewing official election information before voting helps you be prepared and have a smooth voting experience.”
What Happens Next
The Democratic and Republican primaries in Texas are scheduled for March 3, with runoff elections set for May 26, if no candidate secures a majority.
The midterm elections in Texas and other states will take place in November 2026.
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