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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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Team USA looks to follow up on a dominant performance in its Olympic opener, a 110-86 win over Serbia last Sunday, when it takes on South Sudan at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network.
These two teams met in an exhibition match on July 20, and the U.S. needed a layup by LeBron James in the final seconds to win a game with a point spread over 40 points.
South Sudan is getting some respect entering the much-higher-stakes rematch, but is not expected to keep Wednesday's matchup close.
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USA-South Sudan Olympic Basketball Odds
The line for Wednesday's game has moved slightly in favor of South Sudan. The Bright Stars were getting at least 29 points across the board as of Tuesday evening (ET), but they're "just" a 28- or 28.5-point underdog as of late Wednesday morning (11 a.m. ET).
The total for USA-South Sudan is set between 190.5 (O -120; U -105) at BetMGM and 192 (O -110; U -110) at DraftKings.
USA vs. South Sudan Betting Analysis
How close is U.S. coach Steve Kerr to defining his rotation?
The biggest takeaway from USA vs. Serbia was that the Americans are not getting a diminished version of Kevin Durant. The 35-year-old Durant, who is coming off a calf injury, has always been outstanding in Olympic play. Sunday's opener against Serbia was no exception, as KD was unstoppable with 23 points in just under 17 minutes of action.
It's a matter of time before Durant joins this team's starting lineup, but it's unclear whether he'll start against South Sudan.
Head coach Steve Kerr also has at least two other tricky personnel questions to answer ASAP:
- No. 1 -- Can he continue to start Joel Embiid?
- No. 2 -- What will he do with Jayson Tatum?
Embiid struggled in limited minutes against not only Serbia in the Olympic opener, but also in the team's exhibition games. Don't be surprised if Anthony Davis, who played 19 minutes against Serbia despite early foul trouble, takes over as USA's starting center beginning with the South Sudan matchup.
Meanwhile, Tatum was a head-scratching DNP and the odd man out of the rotation against Serbia. Kerr has since vowed to play the Celtics star against South Sudan and moving forward. With Durant clearly healthy, it will be fascinating to see whose minutes Tatum takes on Wednesday.
The remarkable depth of Team USA is an enviable problem, but it does create a tricky puzzle for Kerr as he goes about establishing each player's role on this roster.
Can Team USA defend the 3-point line against the Bright Stars?
South Sudan won its Olympic opener against Puerto Rico 90-79. The 3-point-heavy approach that kept their exhibition against Team USA close (the underdogs made 14 of their 33 3-point field goal attempts) was less effective against Puerto Rico.
The Bright Stars shot just 10-for-29 from outside in their Olympic opener and trailed 54-48 at halftime. But they finished with 18 offensive boards and held Puerto Rico to sub-40% shooting from the floor while winning the second half 42-25 en route to an 11-point victory.
If the U.S. can force South Sudan into a rough shooting night, this one won't be competitive. That's a big "if" given how the exhibition game between these teams played out, though.
USA vs. South Sudan Prediction, Best Bets
Basketball fans have known for months that no team in the field can match Team USA's ceiling, and the Americans emphatically confirmed as much in their opener against a good Serbia team.
With a red-hot Durant (5-for-5 on 3-pointers) leading the way in his return from a calf injury, the U.S. knocked down 18 of its 32 shots from outside. What was arguably more meaningful, though—assuming 56% shooting from 3 isn't quite sustainable — was Team USA's defensive performance. The Americans held Serbia to under 42% shooting from the field, including just 24% (9-for-37) from 3-point land.
Based on how the clash with Serbia went, Team USA's defense might be so good that it is going to win most of its games by 15-20 if it's cold and by 25 or more if it's having a hot shooting night. The potential for completely uncompetitive games, at least until the medal rounds, is even greater if Durant plays anywhere near as well as he did against Serbia.
Given how much respect Team USA now has for South Sudan after a hard-fought exhibition game in the lead-up to Olympic group play, it's likely a matter of time before Wednesday's game gets out of hand. The fact that point differential is a factor in a potential group tie-breaking scenario means the U.S. will likely keep its foot on the gas. That makes the Americans a solid bet to cover the massive spread.
Anyone (understandably) hesitant to back the favorites on a spread like 29 points should keep in mind what happened late in last Sunday's win over Serbia. Despite leading 93-79 with 3:44 to play, USA still sprinted through the finish line, stretching that lead to 110-86 by the final whistle.
USA vs. South Sudan best bets:
- USA -28 (-110 at DraftKings)
- South Sudan Team Total Under 81.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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