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By Andrew Stanton
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A new internal poll shows Democrat Dan Kleban with a lead over Republican Senator Susan Collins in the critical Maine Senate race.
Kleban responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
"The cost of living is just too damn high and Mainers are feeling that every day," he said. "Susan Collins has been in Washington for 30 years and she's lost touch with what's going on here at home. I hear that when I'm out talking to people from every corner of the state, and this poll shows Mainers are ready for a fresh perspective.
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"As a business owner and job creator, I'm ready to deliver that. From tackling rising housing costs and healthcare bills to protecting our environment and investing in our communities, I'll be a Senator who stands up for Maine, not special interests."
National Republican Senatorial Committee regional press secretary Samantha Cantrell told Newsweek: "When voters think of Maine, they think of Susan Collins and everything she has delivered for her state. This is a bogus internal Democrat poll from a no-name candidate who will never actually face off against Senator Collins because he will lose his competitive, messy eight-way primary to Chuck Schumer's preferred candidate, Janet Mills."
Newsweek reached out to a Collins spokesperson for comment via email.
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Why It Matters
The poll underscores the competitive nature of the race, but internal polls are generally not viewed as reliably as independent polls, as they are often selectively released.
Collins has outperformed polls in the past. She did not lead a single poll in 2020 but went on to defeat Democrat Sara Gideon with more than 50 percent of the vote.
Maine, a blue-leaning state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points in last November's election, is a must-win for Democrats as they seek to reclaim a Senate majority. Kleban, co-founder of Maine Beer Company, is casting himself as the strongest candidate to take on Collins, touting his small business background as preparing him for the Senate.
Independent polling on the race is limited, but it is expected to be among the most competitive midterm elections.
What To Know
The internal poll from the Public Policy Polling and Normington Petts found Kleban leading Collins by nine points on the initial ballot (44 percent to 35 percent) and eight points on an informed ballot (46 percent to 38 percent). A significant number of respondents said they were still undecided about who they would support: 21 percent on the initial ballot and 16 percent on the informed ballot.
The poll also found that the political environment in the Pine Tree State is a "warning sign" for Collins, as only 43 percent of residents are giving President Donald Trump positive marks during his second term, and 53 percent disapprove of his job performance.
It polled 642 Maine voters from September 8-9. It notably did not poll on the Democratic primary or ask about other candidates.
The Maine Senate race has drawn several challengers in addition to Kleban. Graham Platner, an oyster farmer, and Jordan Wood, who served as vice president to End Citizens United, are also among those running. Governor Janet Mills is also viewed as a potential candidate.
Maine has not voted for a Republican at the presidential level since George H.W. Bush in 1988, although it does split its votes, and the more conservative Second District has given its vote to a Republican. However, the state has been willing to elect moderate Republicans over the years, including Collins, who has enjoyed popularity in the state for decades.
Collins easily won reelection in 2008 and 2014, but faced her closest reelection race in 2020 against former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon. Still, she won with nearly 51 percent of the vote.
Some polls have found Collins' favorability has dropped since her last election.
A University of New Hampshire poll from June found that 14 percent of Maine voters view Collins favorably, while 57 percent view her unfavorably; 26 percent were neutral. It surveyed 846 Mainers between June 19 and June 23, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
A recent Morning Consult poll found that Collins' approval reached a record low of 38 percent, while 54 percent of Mainers disapproved of her.
A Pan Atlantic Research poll showed better results for Collins. It found that 49 percent of Mainers view the senator favorably, while 45 percent view her unfavorably. The survey of 840 likely voters from May 12-26, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Jill Normington, partner at Normington Petts, in a press release: "This Senate seat is primed for the taking. Collins significantly underperformed her historical vote share in 2020 by only winning with 51%, and she is more unpopular than ever...Collins's past success is largely due to her crossover support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents.
"This support is evaporating, and Dan Kleban is poised to not only consolidate the Democratic base in Maine, but also win over Independents and flip this seat."
Uni Watch writer Anthony Emerson, on X: "They didn't publish crosstabs and didn't poll any other question other than 'Kleban or Collins' and approvals of Collins and Trump. No D primary, no other D candidates against Collins, nothing."
What Happens Next
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as "Lean Republican," meaning it is "considered competitive," but that Collins "has an advantage." Sabato's Crystal Ball also classifies the race as leaning toward Republicans.
Update 9/19/25, 1:56 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Dan Kleban.
Update 9/19/25, 3:48 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
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