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By Andrew Stanton
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A new poll revealed Republican Senator Susan Collins’ chances of losing to Democratic candidates Graham Platner and Governor Janet Mills in Maine's U.S. Senate race.
Newsweek reached out to each campaign for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Maine’s Senate race is expected to be among the most competitive of the 2026 midterm elections. Maine generally leans toward Democrats—former Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by seven points in 2024—but Collins has long been popular among Pine Tree State voters, who have reelected the Republican time and time again.
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But Collins may be in for her toughest race yet. Democrats believe President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating, as well as increased political polarization, will complicate Collins’ path to reelection in a state that has been increasingly unfavorable to the GOP in recent years.
Republicans believe her long tenure and bipartisan appeal will benefit Collins.
What To Know
A new poll from Quantus Insights provided the latest look at where the race stands about three months ahead of the primary. Collins, despite facing Trump’s ire at times, is widely expected to win the party’s nomination. But Democrats are facing a competitive primary between Mills and Platner.
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The poll pointed to a potentially close race, with no candidate receiving a majority in either matchup. In a scenario where Mills wins the primary, Collins would hold a slight lead (44.6 percent to 43 percent). But if Platner wins the nomination, he would hold a lead (48.6 percent to 41.8 percent), according to the poll.
Platner held a narrow lead over Mills in the primary (43.3 percent to 38 percent).
It surveyed 800 likely voters from March 3-5, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Mills, Platner Face Competitive Primary
Mills is viewed as the preferred choice of the Democratic Party's establishment, who back her because of her strong electoral performances in the past and her willingness to stand up to Trump. But her critics have raised concerns about a middling approval rating and the 78-year-old's age.
Platner is viewed as the more progressive candidate. His supporters say his background as an oyster farmer and a political newcomer may be a strong fit for Maine, but critics say a flurry of scandals would leave him more vulnerable in a general election.
Unearthed social media posts about women, rural white people and Black people, as well as the revelation that he had a tattoo resembling the Totenkopf, or “death’s head,” a symbol adopted by the Nazi SS, have threatened to upend his campaign. Platner has apologized for the posts and has had the tattoo covered. He previously told Newsweek, “I absolutely would not have gone through life having this on my chest if I knew that—and to insinuate that I did is disgusting.”
Mills vs. Platner: What Polls Show About Democratic Primary
Most recent polls give Platner an advantage in the primary. A Pan Atlantic Research poll released earlier in March gave him a 7-point lead over Mills (46 percent to 39 percent). It surveyed 810 likely voters from February 13 to March 2, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
A University of New Hampshire poll, meanwhile, showed Platner leading by a wide margin (64 percent to 26 percent) in the primary. It surveyed 462 likely voters from February 12-16, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for the overall poll.
Collins v. Platner and Mills: What Other Polls, Betting Odds Show
The Pan Atlantic Research poll showed Collins and Mills locked in a dead heat with 44 percent each. It gave Platner a modest advantage (44 percent to 40 percent). Meanwhile, the University of New Hampshire poll gave Mills a single-point lead over Collins (41 percent to 40 percent) and Platner an 11-point lead (49 percent to 38 percent).
Kalshi's predictions market gives Democrats a 71 percent chance of winning Maine's Senate race as of Monday evening.
Maine Is a Must-Win for Democrats
Maine is viewed as a must-win state for Democrats this year. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, so Democrats must flip three seats for a tie and four for an outright majority.
In addition to Maine, North Carolina, where Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring, is the Democrats' other top target. Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has polled well against Republican Michael Whatley. But even if Democrats hold every seat they currently hold and flip those two seats, they would still be held to a 49-seat minority.
No other Republican-held seats in Harris-won or single-digit Trump states are up for grabs. This means Democrats must compete in more conservative territory. They are eyeing double-digit Trump states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential flip opportunities.
What People Are Saying
The Quantus Insights report reads: “At this stage, several factors may explain the gap. Platner benefits from lower statewide familiarity, which can limit early opposition. At the same time, the results suggest that some voters who might hesitate to support Mills appear more open to an alternative Democratic nominee.
Whether that advantage holds would likely depend on how a general election campaign defines Platner and whether Collins can consolidate independent voters, a coalition that has long sustained her statewide success.”
Democratic strategist Rebecca Katz responded to the poll on X, writing: “How many polls in a row have to come out before folks start understanding that @grahamformaine may just be the more electable candidate??”
What Happens Next
Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up, giving Democrats and Republicans roughly even chances of winning in November. The primary is set for June 9, 2026, and the general election will be held on November 3, 2026.
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