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By Joe Edwards
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Experts have suggested that El Niño could contribute to record warm temperatures in 2027.
El Niño and La Niña represent the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO.” This system shifts irregularly every two to seven years, driving predictable swings in ocean temperatures and altering typical wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
During El Niño, trade winds weaken, allowing warm ocean water to shift eastward toward the Americas. This warming nudges the Pacific jet stream south of its normal position, and as a result, the northern U.S. and Canada often see warmer, drier conditions, while the Gulf Coast and Southeast are more likely to experience wetter‑than‑normal weather and a heightened flood risk, according to the NOAA.
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In a March 13 email to Newsweek, AccuWeather noted a growing likelihood that this could occur later this year. It explained that a “super El Niño,” is defined as ocean temperatures reaching 2 degrees Celsius or more above average in the ENSO region.
“We feel El Niño will form this summer, early to mid is the expectation. Intensity is uncertain, but there is potential for a moderate to possibly strong El Niño this fall into winter. Water temperatures expected over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean are supporting an El Niño with impacts on the tropical season and southern U.S. moisture this summer and fall,” said AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok.
AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva told Newsweek on Friday that AccuWeather gives a “super” El Niño a 15 percent chance of development by late in the next hurricane season.
In an update earlier this month, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral in the next month. After a period of ENSO-neutral conditions, the agency gave a 62 percent chance that El Niño would emerge in June-August and persist through at least the end of the year.
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“If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be ‘strong’ during October-December 2026,” the CPC said.
Climate scientist and energy systems analyst Zeke Hausfather said in a March 6 post on X that El Niño’s arrival could “push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (though its still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag b/w ENSO and surface temp.”
In a string of subsequent posts, Hausfather said that while there remained “a reasonable amount of spread in future forecasts," if a strong El Niño were to develop, “it would push up 2026 global temperatures and (particularly) 2027 temperatures given the typical lag between peak El Niño conditions in the tropical pacific and the global temperature response."
“This means that 2026 would still be unlikely to see a new global temperature record set (though its not impossible, as we saw in 2023!), but 2027 would be increasingly likely to be a record warm year," he said.
Washington Post weather writer and meteorologist Ben Noll also noted in a social media thread on El Niño that there was “a growing chance” 2027 could become Earth’s warmest year on record.
As noted by Live Science, many factors influence weather conditions besides ENSO, including climate change.
“A lot of times the year after an El Niño tends to have very warm global temperatures. For example, 2024 was the warmest year globally on record and there was an El Niño during 2023 and at the start of 2024,” DaSilva said.
“While a super El Niño would certainly help make temperatures warmer, its not necessarily required to break records. The El Niño would likely have to linger into the start of the 2027 year in order to make 2027 in the running for the warmest year on record globally.”
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