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By Andrew Stanton
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New Hampshire’s Senate race will test the power of the Sununu name as former Senator John Sununu hopes to boost Republicans in midterm elections that will likely prove complicated for the GOP.
Sununu is seeking a comeback in the Granite State against Democratic Representative Chris Pappas to replace retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen. New Hampshire narrowly backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, and the state has generally leaned toward Democrats in statewide elections, so Pappas has been viewed as a favorite. But some polls have pointed to a closer-than-expected race.
The Sununu family is an institution in New Hampshire. In addition to the former senator, who held the seat from 2003 to 2009, his father, John H. Sununu, served as governor in the 1980s, and his brother Chris Sununu was governor from 2017 to 2025.
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But this election could test the power of the Sununu name. His brother withstood tough electoral environments for the GOP in 2018 and 2020.
But this race is different. Trump is less popular than ever in the polls, and federal races are generally more partisan than governor’s races.
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The Sununu name gives the former senator a modest advantage over a generic Republican in New Hampshire, Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, told Newsweek. But he said national issues like the economy are likely to weigh heavier for voters than the popularity of the political dynasty.
“The way I look at it is that Sununu’s name recognition probably gives him about a 3 percentage point advantage over a generic Republican running,” he said. “He’s been in office so he can point to him being an experienced person to be able to step into this race. Pappas is generally well known, but not seen as somebody who is on the cutting edge of the Democratic Party.”
The Sununu family has had “some really strong people” running and serving in office, Neil Levesque, the executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, told Newsweek.
Sununu’s ability to localize the election, knowing the issues important to New Hampshire voters and running strong ads has put him in a better position than would be expected in this environment, he said, noting that he still wouldn’t classify the race as close.
Pappas, he noted, has also been on the ballot several times in his district—which comprises half of the state’s population—and comes from a well-known family. His family owns the Manchester restaurant Puritan Backroom, which has been credited with inventing chicken tenders.
“The real name that people do know is Donald Trump, and that’s really what is motivating a lot of voters at this point,” he said. “Although Trump’s name is not on the ballot, and you have Sununu and Pappas with their own strong name recognition and branding, Trump is the motivating factor here in midterm elections.”
Sununu sought to put some distance between himself and Trump in a new ad.
“The way Chris Pappas tells it, I’m President Trump’s long-lost son. I’ve never even met the man. When the president’s policies are bad for New Hampshire, I’ll oppose them, just like I’ve opposed the war in Iran and the trade war with Canada,” he said.
Newsweek reached out to the Pappas and Sununu campaigns for comment via email.
How the Sununu Family Became Political Institution in New Hampshire
John H. Sununu’s 1982 victory in the gubernatorial race began a political dynasty that would span decades in New Hampshire. He served in that role until 1989, and later served as the chief of staff to then President George H. W. Bush from 1989 to 1991.
Having that prominent of a position “solidified” the Sununu family as important in New Hampshire politics, said Smith.
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Only a few years later, his son John E. Sununu would be elected to Congress, representing New Hampshire’s 1st District. At that time, the state still leaned Republican but was starting to shift, Smith said, noting that his father’s connections helped him early in the political career. He won the Senate race in 2002 and served one term before losing to Shaheen, then the former governor, in a difficult year for the GOP.
The Sununu family was not absent from state government for long—Chris Sununu was elected to the New Hampshire Executive Council in 2010 and governor in 2016, even as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton edged out President Donald Trump in the state on the same ballot.
He won reelection in tough years for Republicans, including 2018, the last time there was a “blue wave” year during Trump’s first term, and 2020, when former President Joe Biden carried the state by just over 7 points.
Having that name recognition helped him in those races, Smith said.
But he did not seek reelection in 2024.
This year, it is the brother and former senator, John E. Sununu, who is seeking to return to office, nearly two decades after his loss to Shaheen.
Can John Sununu Defy Political Gravity?
A lot has changed in the state since Sununu last ran for office.
“About half of the people in the state weren’t eligible to vote or didn’t live in the state back when he ran for office last time,” said Smith.
Sununu will have to defy political headwinds to defeat Pappas in this year’s midterm. In a state that has backed Democrats at the federal level in recent cycles, Pappas is seen as having an advantage due to the overall national environment.
A flurry of polls in late August and early September showed a tight race, giving Republicans hope that Sununu could overcome the national environment and flip the seat. A University of New Hampshire poll of 1,846 likely voters from August 20 to 24 showed Sununu up 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
A handful of GOP internal polls also showed a tight race. The Cook Political Report temporarily shifted the race to the toss-up category in mid-September.
But polling has shifted in Pappas’ favor. The latest UNH poll, conducted from September 17 to 21, gave Pappas an 8-point lead, 50 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 1,392 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Another poll from The New York Times and Siena University gave Pappas a 5-point lead, 50 percent to 45 percent, among 613 likely voters from September 15 to 22. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
The Senate race “definitely leans Democratic,” Smith said.
“It would be difficult for Sununu to pull this one out,” he said. “It’s likely to be a very good year for Democrats, both here and across the country.”
GOP’s Elusive Swing State With an Independent Streak
At the federal level, New Hampshire has emerged as an elusive state for Republicans. The Granite State regularly elects Republican governors, but it has continued to lean Democratic in federal races.
It last voted for a Republican president in 2000. Democrats have also performed strongly in recent U.S. Senate races, winning every contest in the state since 2016.
The state is generally seen as politically moderate with a libertarian streak, and it has backed politicians from both parties over the years.
In 2024, the state narrowly went to Harris, 50.7 percent to 47.9 percent. But it gave President Joe Biden a wider victory in 2020, backing him by 7 points. In 2016, it was one of the country's closest races, backing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by less than half a percentage point.
New Hampshire’s southern and central region is fairly dense around cities like Manchester, Concord, Portsmouth, Dover and Nashua. Many of those cities lean Democratic, though not always overwhelmingly, while Republicans perform strongly in many smaller towns and communities.
Undeclared voters are the largest voter group in New Hampshire.
As of September 18, 307,254 New Hampshirites were not registered with either party, according to the Secretary of State’s office. There were 298,965 registered Republicans and 255,943 registered Democrats.
New England Backs Political Dynasties in High Profile Contests
Political dynasties have been having a strong year in New England.
Also in New Hampshire, Senator Shaheen’s daughter, Stefany Shaheen, won the Democratic primary to succeed Pappas in the House. The Cook Political Report considers the race to be Likely Democratic.
In neighboring Maine, Hannah Pingree, the daughter of Representative Chellie Pingree, won the Democratic primary in the state’s gubernatorial race. She defeated Angus King III, the son of Senator Angus King, among several other Democrats, to win the nomination. Pingree is seen as the favorite to win the general election.
Meanwhile, in Rhode Island, Helena Foulkes, the niece of former Senator Chris Dodd, defeated incumbent Governor Dan McKee in the Democratic primary and is also seen as the favorite to win in November.
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