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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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The Mets took the first game of the Subway Series, getting to Gerrit Cole early and often as the Yankees ace has not looked like himself through two starts.
As for tonight's game, we have Luis Gil, the rookie phenom, on the mound for the Yankees going up against lefty Sean Manaea of the Mets. Here are our two favorite bets to lock in for this matchup at 7:10 p.m. ET tonight.
Play 1: Luis Gil over 16.5 Outs (-106) BetRivers
This one has some risk associated with it as the Mets offense has been on fire over the past couple weeks or so, but this is a great buy low opportunity on Gil. In his last start, he got absolutely blasted by the Orioles, giving up 8 hits and seven runs (all earned) while only managing to get four total outs. No way around it, that was not a great start by Gil by any means.
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Of course, heading into that start, Gil had gone over 16.5 outs (which means getting at least two outs in the sixth inning) in eight of his last nine starts. So, some sort of regression was bound to hit for Gil, but now that we got that out of the way the other side is now the valuable play. Gil has been a revelation for the Yankees this season, and one start does not take that all away.
On the year, even including his last start, Gil has a 2.77 ERA, 3.04 xERA (10th-best in the MLB) and a 3.31 FIP (20th in MLB). So, while he was slightly lucky to have that low of an ERA, even his expected stats show an elite pitcher. The Mets offense has been absolutely raking recently, with the best wRC+ in the MLB over the past two weeks, but I will trust good pitching to beat good hitting, and the guess here is that the Mets will be unable to sustain this type of success.
Play 2: Sean Manaea under 2.5 Earned Runs (-105) DraftKings
Backing any pitcher against the Yankees might seem like a scary proposition, but their offense quietly has not been the machine that you would normally expect recently. Not that they have been horrible by any means, but not among the top of the league either. Over the last two weeks against left-handed pitching they have the 13th-ranked wRC+, 15th-ranked wOBA, 15th-ranked wRAA, 17th-ranked ISO rate, 16th-ranked OPS and the 18th-ranked slugging.
Manaea is not an ace, but he is a decent enough pitcher who should be able to have a good game against this injury-riddled Yankees lineup now also missing Giancarlo Stanton. His advanced stats will not blow you away (4.16 ERA, 4.22 xERA, 3.73 FIP, 4.23 xFIP and 4.12 SIERA), but they are respectable numbers at the very least. In 14 starts this season, Manaea has only allowed more than three runs five times, and the under is the play here going up against an over-valued Yankees lineup.
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