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Martha McHardy

By Martha McHardy

US News Reporter

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A major new study has identified the U.S. states suffering the highest mortality rates from wildfire smoke linked to climate change.

Why It Matters

Wildfires have devastated states including California in recent years, claiming lives as recently as January and causing billions of dollars in damage — particularly in Los Angeles County.

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The scale and intensity of these fires have escalated dramatically, with all of California's largest wildfires on record occurring since 2015. This reflects how climate change and prolonged drought have fueled worsening extreme fire behavior.

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What To Know

According to the study published in Communications Earth & Environment, the states with the highest mortality rates from wildfire smoke worsened by climate change between 2006 and 2020 were in the West. These states included Oregon, Montana, Idaho, Washington, California, and Nevada.

California experienced the highest total number of deaths, averaging 350 deaths per year. It also faced the largest economic burden, with an average of $4.1 billion in annual damages — roughly one-quarter of the national total.

However, when adjusting for population, Oregon had the highest mortality rate, with an average of 4.9 deaths per 100,000 people annually. Montana followed with 3.9 deaths per 100,000; Idaho on 2.7; Washington on 2.2; and California on 1.4.

These rates were nearly ten times higher than the least affected states, such as Arkansas and Louisiana, where smoke-related deaths tied to climate change averaged around 0.4 per 100,000 people.

Across these six western states, between 19 percent and 36 percent of all wildfire smoke-related deaths were directly linked to climate change — significantly higher than the national average.

In Oregon, climate change was responsible for 36 percent of smoke-related deaths. In California, that figure was 25 percent, and in Washington it was 27 percent. The contribution of climate change to average annual wildfire PM2.5 concentrations ranged from 25 percent to 60 percent in these states.

At the county level, rural and forested communities bore the brunt of the crisis. Trinity County, California, and Josephine County, Oregon, had the highest per capita death rates in the U.S., each with 17 deaths per 100,000 residents from climate-driven wildfire smoke.

Nationally, the study estimates that wildfire smoke caused 164,000 premature deaths over the 15-year period. Of these, approximately 15,000 deaths — or nearly 10 percent — were directly attributed to climate change.

The year 2020 accounted for one-third of these climate-related deaths, reflecting a period of unprecedented fire activity. The total economic cost of these deaths linked to climate change is estimated at $160 billion over the study period.

These deaths were primarily caused by long-term exposure to PM2.5 — microscopic particles in wildfire smoke that penetrate deep into the lungs and bloodstream, increasing the risk of heart and lung disease.

What People Are Saying

Jacob Bendix, professor emeritus of geography and environment at Syracuse University, told The Associated Press that he was "dismayed" by the findings but not surprised.

"[These] numbers are really significant. I think there's a tendency for people outside of the areas actually burning to see increasing fires as a distant inconvenience... This study drives home how far-reaching the impacts are," he said.

Nicholas Nassikas, a study author and professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, told AP: "We're seeing a lot more of these wildfire smoke events."

What Happens Next

Projections indicate that wildfire smoke-related deaths could rise by 50 percent or more by 2050 depending on future emissions scenarios, with annual damages soaring to $244 billion.

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