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By Cameron Kiszla
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The Minnesota Vikings have reportedly decided that veteran quarterback Kyler Murray is going to be the starting quarterback over young J.J. McCarthy, and while some might be surprised, statistics indicate that the Vikings made the right decision.
McCarthy is heading into his third professional season after he was drafted 10th overall by the Vikings.
He missed his rookie season due to injury, then started 10 games last year, a period in which the Vikings went 6-4.
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Even though the team did well, though, McCarthy did not, as pointed out by football analyst Warren Sharp.
In fact, he threw the ball at a level that put him in some very ignominious company.
McCarthy had a negative expected points added, -0.18, per pass attempt, Sharp pointed out, as well as a completion percentage of 57.6%.
He also threw an interception on 4.9% of his throws.
Put those three factors together and it's a recipe for offensvie struggles.
Just ask the other recent NFL quarterbacks who put up similar numbers.
Sharp listed all quarterbacks since 2010 who had at least 200 throws with an EPA of -0.10 or worse, completion percentage at 59% or worse and interception rate of 3% or worse:
- J.J. McCarthy
- Anthony Richardson
- Josh Rosen
- Jimmy Clausen
- Shedeur Sanders
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson
- DeShone Kizer
- John Skelton
- C.J. Beathard
If you are unfamiliar with the names on that list, each of them is either struggling to compete for playing time currently or they've already washed out of the league.
Richardson, for example, was the fourth overall pick the year before McCarthy was drafted, and he's currently trying to be traded away from the Indianapolis Colts as he faces a possible role as the third-string QB.
Shedeur Sanders is also battling for the starting spot for the Cleveland Browns, but he's facing a stiff challenge from Deshaun Watson.
As a second-year player, there's hope he can improve and earn the job, but Watson is not a top-tier alternative, and the fact that they're battling does not bode well for Sanders' playing ability.
Josh Rosen, a top 10 pick in 2018, spent four years as an active NFL player, much of it as a backup player, and is an infamous draft bust. He's now out of sports entirely and instead graduated with an MBA from the Wharton School.
Perhaps you see the pattern: Players with these types of statistics aren't long for the NFL.
As NFL insider Adam Schefter noted, McCarthy is still young, and he can right the ship.
But for now, "the still only 23-year-old will be forced to be a backup."
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