Why UConn will and won't win the NCAA Tournament

UConn Huskies shooting guard Solo Ball against Xavier Musketeers

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Matthew Couden

By Matthew Couden

Contributing Writer

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Dan Hurley and the UConn Huskies (29-5) begin their March Madness on Friday as a No. 2 seed against the Furman Paladins, and getting off to the right start is crucial, especially after the team's brutal loss against St. John's in the Big East Tournament final.

For Huskies fans, it's been a season of ups and downs, providing quite an emotional roller coaster and a "will they or won't they" sort of run that has been seen before. Hurley's squad has proven they can compete with and defeat the best in the country, but have also shown they have some major issues to address.

Some of those issues have been glaring at them throughout the season, and may have become exposed as they played through the final stretch of the season and against St. John's in the Big East Tournament.

Why UConn Will Win the NCAA Tournament

When looking at UConn's chances of winning the NCAA Tournament, many analysts and critics are looking at way too small a sample size. In particular, they mention the Big East Tournament loss to St. John's by 20 points at Madison Square Garden, and losses to Big East foes Marquette and Creighton.

However, they fail to look at the significant wins the team achieved against out-of-conference opponents before they ever started Big East play. Among those wins, the Huskies defeated the likes of fellow NCAA Tournament teams, BYU, Texas, Illinois, Florida, and Kansas.

A Michigan State exhibition win may not count as much, but throw in their dominant Big East win against St. John's at home, and it shows this team is capable of beating the best. There's even the four-point loss early in the season to the No. 1 seed Arizona, which happened without two starters playing for UConn.

UConn has clearly demonstrated its ability to defeat out-of-conference teams, as well as St. John's, whom they could face in a rematch, depending on how their bracket goes. Nonetheless, this team has displayed an ability to win games in various fashions, including second-half comebacks.

Before the team's impressive 2023-24 championship run behind now-NBA stars Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan, the team suffered several regular-season losses to Seton Hall and Creighton. They shook those off to dominate in March Madness.

UConn guard Solo Ball against St. John's

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Another X-factor for the Huskies, which some may call a weakness, is that they never truly rely on a star performer. Games have seen freshman Braylon Mullins lead the way, or center Taris Reed Jr., Solo Ball, Silas Demary Jr., and Alex Karaban.

This team features a variety of talented options who can impose their will on a game, go on scoring bursts, and help the Huskies record Ws. That makes it hard to gameplan for this team, because there's not necessarily one individual to shut down.

In addition, they have shown themselves to be one of the best defensive teams in the country, and if they can turn that back on, they could be unstoppable.

It seems like the mettle of a championship team, and with a two-time championship-winning coach like Dan Hurley at the helm, it's hard to overlook them as a serious threat to win it all.

Why UConn Won't Win the NCAA Tournament

Unfortunately, there are many glaring issues that the Huskies have put in the spotlight as other teams have exposed them. Some of these issues are ones that plague many college basketball teams and have surfaced during collapses in the first round of March Madness.

Turnovers are a major issue for this UConn team. In their 72-52 loss at St. John's before the NCAA Tournament, the Huskies had 16 turnovers while the Red Storm had just eight. Sloppy ball handling, bad inbounding, and inability to make solid passes will allow hungry opponents to feast on the Huskies for points.

Injuries are also a concern as the Huskies roll into their first game against the No. 15 seed Furman. Both starter Demary Jr. and reserve Jaylin Stewart were "questionable" before the game. Without Demary at the very least, the team has no true ball-handling point guard, beyond backup Malachi Smith.

UConn Huskies forward Alex Karaban extends to get the ball against Marquette

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Along with that comes the strength mentioned above, which can be a weakness: no true star player. When the Huskies need a player to step up and take over a game, who is the top option?

Karaban is a four-year veteran with two championships on his resume, and Braylon Mullins is considered an NBA lottery pick, but neither has carried the team consistently because they haven't had to. Solo Ball has also been known to go off as a scoring threat, but has seemed to be a non-factor in recent games. That leaves Taris Reed Jr., who can be great, but can also be hindered by foul trouble.

Unfortunately, that lack of one true standout player who can aggressively begin to make big plays and push for a win in the face of adversity could hurt when they need it most.

UConn's free-throw shooting and shooting in general can also cause them major issues. The team has shown games where they play amazingly well and shoot lights out, especially beyond three-point range. However, other games have shown absolutely abysmal shooting performances, particularly in losses to Marquette and St. John's.

A lack of a killer instinct when they have a lead in the second half could also haunt them, as too many times, this UConn team has allowed other teams to fight back and make games way too close for comfort down the stretch. Give a hungry team like the Paladins that window of opportunity, and Hurley's Huskies could be in trouble.

Friday's first round game should tell the story of whether Hurley has sharpened his squad's focus and performance after a crushing loss against St. John's, or if they're still suffering from the same issues fans have seen all season.

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