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By Cameron Kiszla
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More high preseason expectations are rolling in for the USC Trojans and head coach Lincoln Riley.
Daire Carragher of Pro Football Focus named the Trojans one of the eight most likely teams to make their first College Football Playoff in 2026.
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Citing odds from betting markets, Carragher said the Trojans are "the most likely program still waiting on its playoff debut to get the monkey off its back this fall."
Part of that, Carragher explains, is due to the influx of new talent.
"The Trojans have recruited at an elite level for years, culminating in the highest-ranked recruiting class in college football for 2026," he wrote. "This class will be inserted into what is already one of the most explosive teams in college football. USC’s 19.6% explosive pass play rate was the highest of any Power Four offense last season."
Despite positive stats like that, the Trojans have largely underperformed under Riley.
In his first season, 2022, quarterback Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy and the team finished 11-3, though they lost the Pac-12 Championship Game and fell to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl.
The Trojans haven't won double-digit games since, including in their first two seasons in the Big Ten.
Last year, the Trojans finished 7-2 in conference and 9-4 overall, but those two conference losses were a close game to the ranked Illinois Illini in Champaign and a double-digit defeat at home to the Oregon Ducks.
Those games were frustrating for sure, but there was also some positive growth in 2025, Carragher explained.
"The Trojans’ transition into the Big Ten came with growing pains at first, but gritty wins over Michigan and Iowa last year brings optimism that Lincoln Riley has built a side that can handle physical football, sometimes in adverse conditions," he wrote.
It will come down to a few key games, he added, but if the Trojans can pull off some wins, they'll find themselves competing for a national title.
"A program with USC’s talent ceiling will rarely stay out of the modern playoff picture for long," Carragher wrote. "If the Trojans can pick off two wins in three games against Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, they stand a brilliant chance."
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