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By Jalon Dixon
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Nikola Jokić’s grip on the 2025-26 NBA MVP race may be slipping, not because of performance, but because of timing.
The Denver Nuggets superstar has been sidelined since Dec. 29 after suffering a hyperextended left knee against the Miami Heat. While the injury itself is not considered structural, the recovery timeline is pushing Jokić dangerously close to ineligibility under the NBA’s 65-game rule, which governs MVP, All-NBA, and major award eligibility.
Before Friday’s game against the Atlanta Hawks, Nuggets coach David Adelman offered a cautiously optimistic update—but one that underscored patience over urgency.
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“It’s day-to-day with the effort-level stuff,” Adelman said, via Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette. “He lifts to see where he’s at. I think it’s more about what he feels like the next day… because that’s the barometer. It’s what you feel like after putting effort in, pushing his body a little bit.”
Adelman also acknowledged the reality looming over the situation: Jokić may not return in time to preserve award eligibility.
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According to NBA insider Marc Stein, early February is increasingly viewed as the most realistic target.
“Early February increasingly looks like it could be the soonest that Nikola Jokić and Cam Johnson, both felled by recent knee injuries, can realistically return to the Nuggets’ lineup,” Stein reported.
If that timeline holds, Jokić would miss at least 19 games, exceeding the league’s 17-game maximum for award consideration.
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That outcome would be especially cruel given the season Jokić was having before the injury. Through late December, the three-time MVP was averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists, shooting 60.5% from the field and 43.5% from three—a historic triple-double campaign that had him sitting atop the NBA’s MVP ladder.
Denver has stayed afloat without him, posting a 3-3 record over the last six games. Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun have returned, Jamal Murray has carried the offensive load, and role players like Peyton Watson and Zeke Nnaji have stepped up amid a wave of injuries and even a mid-game illness outbreak.
Still, the bigger picture is unavoidable. Whether Jokić returns in late January or early February, the Nuggets are prioritizing long-term health over individual accolades. In doing so, one of the most dominant seasons in modern NBA history may never be eligible for the award it deserves.
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